Sunday, October 05, 2003

Ach, Mein Gott! Israel Attacks Syria

What possible rationale could there for this course of action? (via Matthew Yglesias)

JERUSALEM -- Israeli warplanes bombed Syria on Sunday, striking what the military called an Islamic Jihad training base in retaliation for a suicide bombing at a Haifa restaurant. It was the first Israeli attack deep inside Syrian territory in three decades.

The attack -- one day after an Islamic Jihad bomber killed 19 people -- threatened to widen three years of Israeli-Palestinian violence into neighboring countries and marked a dramatic new strategy in Israel's efforts to stop terror attacks.

Israel, which accuses Syria of harboring and funding Islamic Jihad, said it would strike at terrorists anywhere in the region. A statement from the military also accused Iran of funding and directing Islamic Jihad, saying Israel "will act with determination against all who harm its citizens."

"Any country who harbors terrorism, who trains (terrorists), supports and encourages them will be responsible to answer for their actions," government spokesman Avi Pazner said.

Syria's Foreign Ministry issued a terse statement saying it plans to lodge an "urgent complaint" against Israel with the United Nations. The U.N. spokesman's office confirmed that the Security Council called an emergency meeting Sunday in response to Syria's request.

But a direct military response by Syria appeared unlikely. One parliament member, George Jabbour, said military action has not benefitted Syria in the past.

I don't understand this at all, and I don't see what is to be gained by it. The Syrian regime is one of the nastier ones in the middle east, but it is hardly a threat to Israel from the military standpoint. What is going on in Ariel Sharon's head?

Trial By Media

I have to hand it to Gray Davis and the Democratic Party; this time they've really outdone themselves in the dirty tricks department. But weren't they the ones screaming "it's only sex!" when a certain president was facing trial (as opposed to being merely accused of the odd grope) for sexual harrassment? Talk about double standards.

SAN DIEGO/PLEASANTON, Calif. (Reuters) - California Gov. Gray Davis charged into the final stage of the state's wild recall battle on Sunday energized by charges of sexism and Nazi sympathies against Arnold Schwarzenegger, his chief rival for the state's top job.

What began as a grass roots protest over Davis' handling of the state's ailing economy has become a referendum on the bodybuilder turned Hollywood star, dogged by allegations that he repeatedly groped women and admired Adolf Hitler.

Davis stopped short on Saturday of calling for a criminal investigation of the former Mr. Universe, but warned a women's forum in Oakland, California the state may be on the verge of saddling itself with a governor with a criminal past. Groping is viewed as criminal sexual assault in California.

Schwarzenegger, a Republican, has accused Davis and others of waging ``puke politics'' and, in an interview released on Sunday by ABC, told interviewer Peter Jennings the late revelation ``is campaign trickery and it is dirty campaigning.

``Many of those things are not true. Like, for instance, I despise anything and everything that Hitler stands for.''

Davis appeared emboldened by an internal poll suggesting support for the recall -- though still just above 50 percent -- is slipping as the heat remains on Schwarzenegger, with 48 percent opposed in the poll of 500 registered voters.

While the momentum was moving in Davis' favor, the question remained whether he had enough time before Tuesday's poll to pull from behind for a victory.

``I feel good about this campaign,'' Davis told Reuters in an interview in San Diego on Saturday evening. ``Elections are always a leap of faith. ... This has been a crazy election. There have been some wild swings.''

``Mr. Schwarzenegger ... got in trouble because of his own behavior and he shouldn't look to anyone else to blame.''

This is pretty rich, coming from this most feckless and incompetent of governors! And why isn't the LA Times investigating the allegations of bad behavior by Davis that make Schwarzenegger seem like a boy scout in comparison? Could it be because they have a political agenda to serve by springing this sort of last minute surprise? The great thing about waiting till so late in the campaign to air these accusations is that the accused won't have the time required to mount a proper defense. As an act of political slander, this "exposé" has really been timed to perfection.

Saturday, October 04, 2003

BBC News - Nigeria Tops Happiness Survey

Now here's a surprise if ever there was one:

A new study of more than 65 countries published in the UK's New Scientist magazine suggests that the happiest people in the world live in Nigeria - and the least happy, in Romania.

People in Latin America, Western Europe and North America are happier than their counterparts in Eastern Europe and Russia.

Nigeria has the highest percentage of happy people followed by Mexico, Venezuela, El Salvador and Puerto Rico, while Russia, Armenia and Romania have the fewest.

But factors that make people happy may vary from one country to the next with personal success and self-expression being seen as the most important in the US, while in Japan, fulfilling the expectations of family and society is valued more highly.

The survey appears to confirm the old adage that money cannot buy happiness.

I find the results of this survey really quite difficult to believe. There are serious methodological difficulties in carrying out surveys of this sort that make them of dubious value at best. How does one even measure one person's happiness against another? When Carl Menger introduced the notion of subjective value and utility into economics, he had very good reasons for doing so, not the least of which was that his notions helped overcome the troublesome issues that arose from trying to carry out the interpersonal comparisons demanded by utilitarianism. If philosophers haven't been able to get past this difficulty within the last 130 years or so, why should we take at face value a study that seems to assume the problem is solved?

I'm willing to accept that money and happiness aren't necessarily linked, but I don't think studies of this type do much to prove that this is true. One person's definition of happiness will differ from another's, even within the same family, much less across cultures.

James Taranto Nails It

The hypocrisy of this last-minute flurry of unsubstantiated accusations against Schwarzenegger is something awesome to behold:

You just have to laugh at the Angry Left. How can these people expect anyone to take them seriously when they publish books with titles like "The Big Lies of George W. Bush and the Big Lying Liars of George W. Bush Who Tell Them?"--and their hero is Bill Clinton? Reasonable people can disagree with Bush policies, of course, but constantly calling him a "liar" serves only to remind people of how honest he is compared with his predecessor.

That's not all, folks. Clinton's lies, the nascent Angry Left told us at the time, were excusable because they were "about sex." A state employee accuses him of dropping his trousers, a campaign volunteer charges him with groping her in the Oval Office, a nursing-home operator says he raped her in the 1970s--those are all just "personal peccadilloes." It's time to move on!

In fact, there was a Web site called MoveOn.org set up in 1998 to oppose impeachment, which has remained in operation and turned into a center of Angry Left activity. So what are the folks at MoveOn up to these days? For one thing, they're beating the BUSH LIED!!!! drum, using a witless adjunct site called Misleader.org. Then there's this: "We're asking you to help fund a television ad devoted to putting [Arnold] Schwarzenegger's problem with women into the public eye. We need to raise at least $500,000 to make this happen."

The Drudge Report reproduces a MoveOn.org news release announcing a press conference this morning in Los Angeles, featuring MoveOn co-founder Joan Blades, former candidate and "Green Acres" star Arianna Huffington and an unnamed "woman cited in the Los Angeles Times article" on Schwarzenegger's past boorishness.

So let's see if we have this straight. Bush is bad because he "lies." Schwarzenegger is bad because he (admittedly) treated women in an offensive way. But Clinton's behavior was no big deal because he lied about offensive treatment of women. Does MoveOn really mean to assert as its guiding principle that it's acceptable to molest and even assault women if and only if you lie about it?

The October Surprise

This article by Susan Estrich (national campaign manager for Michael Dukakis in 1988, and hardly a Republican water-carrier) really says all there needs to be said about the disgusting ambush of Schwarzenegger laid out by the LA Times:

So this is the October surprise? The Los Angeles Times headline that Arnold Schwarzenegger groped and humiliated women?

None of the six women interviewed by The Times filed legal charges. Four of the six were quoted anonymously. Of the two who were named, one, a British television hostess, had told her story to Premiere magazine years ago, and it has been widely known and largely ignored. The other recounts an alleged incident of fondling at Gold's Gym nearly 30 years ago.

The anonymous incidents occurred on movie sets and consist of touching a woman's breast in the elevator, whispering vulgarities and pulling a woman onto his lap. Though emphasizing that not everything in the stories was accurate, the candidate responded Thursday with an apology: "Yes, it is true that I was on rowdy movie sets and I have done things that were not right which I thought then was playful, but now I recognize that I offended people." And he pledged to treat women with respect if elected.

As a professor of sex discrimination law for two decades and an expert on sexual harassment, I certainly don't condone the unwanted touching of women that was apparently involved here. But these acts do not appear to constitute any crime, such as rape or sodomy or even assault or battery. As for civil law, sexual harassment requires more than a single case of unwelcome touching; there must be either a threat or promise of sex in exchange for a job benefit or demotion, or the hostile environment must be severe and pervasive.

But none of these women, as The Times emphasizes, ever came forward to complain. The newspaper went looking for them, and then waited until five days before the election to tell the fragments of the story.

What this story accomplishes is less an attack on Schwarzenegger than a smear on the press. It reaffirms everything that's wrong with the political process. Anonymous charges from years ago made in the closing days of a campaign undermine fair politics.

Facing these charges, a candidate has two choices. If he denies them, the story keeps building and overshadows everything else he does. Schwarzenegger's bold apology is a gamble to make the story go away. It may or may not work.

But here's my prediction, as a Californian: It's too late for the Los Angeles Times' charges to have much impact. People have made up their minds. This attack, coming as late as it does, from a newspaper that has been acting more like a cheerleader for Gray Davis than an objective source of information, will be dismissed by most people as more Davis-like dirty politics. Is this the worst they could come up with? Ho-hum. After what we've been through?

To his credit, Schwarzenegger apologized for "behaving badly." So should the Los Angeles Times.

Friday, October 03, 2003

31 Reasons to Avoid Internet Explorer

So you've run Windows Update, downloaded all the latest patches, set up a firewall, and are therefore safe from attack, right? Before patting yourself on the back, you might want to take a look at the link above; yes, that's right, there are 31 separate unfixed security holes in Internet Explorer as of the present time, and there's absolutely nothing you can do to fix them!

Actually, I exaggerate slightly, as there is an alternative to getting off the web altogether: junk IE, and go get yourself a real browser, like Mozilla 1.4, or Mozilla Firebird. Not only are these browsers devoid of the gargantuan security hassles that stem from Microsoft's "ActiveX" technology, but they also happen to be the most standards-compliant web browsers out there, bar none. "Standards compliance?" you ask, "what is it that I should give a damn about it?" Well, for one thing, it enables exciting new possibilities like MathML, or text-based mathematical markup, which you can see being put to effective use on sites like string theorist Jacques Distler's blog.1

MathML may not be a pressing need for everyone else out there, but the componentized approach to markup that XHTML 1.1 offers, and which Mozilla-based browsers support, means that private groups or individuals can come up with their own markup schemes and expect other people's browsers to support them flawlessly. Imagine, for instance, being able to look at and manipulate complicated molecules without having to download a plugin!2 Imagine being able to enjoy vector-based animation without having to deal with the annoyance of Macromedia Flash!3 Unfortunately, the road to this promised land will not be open until people begin to junk Microsoft's browser in large numbers. Internet Explorer is not only a bundle of security holes pretending to be a web browser, but also a tremendous obstacle in the way of technological progress. Spread the word - "Friends Don't Let Friends Use IE!"


1 - Provided you have a MathML-capable browser, of course.
2 - There is in fact already a Chemical Markup Language.
3 - The W3C's Scalable Vector Graphics (SVG) standard permits precisely this.

The Problem with Japan

I don't tend to give Japan the coverage on here that its' economic importance and proximity to North Korea would seem to warrant, and it isn't because I am ignorant of the country; on the contrary, I am (or at least was) reasonably fluent in Japanese, have been to Japan, know the history of the country pretty well, and admire its' artistic and literary traditions. If I tend to ignore events in Japan, it is for one reason alone, namely a cynicism bred of disillusionment about the prospects for real change in that country.

In all the years I've been observing Japan, any number of would-be "reformers" have come and gone, and yet the same old problems always remain - a banking system in crisis due to an excess of bad loans, a political class that is beholden to construction companies, farmers and other special interests, a dubious Keynesian reliance on expensive but useless public-works projects, an unwavering faith in the possibility of export-led growth (in spite of the rise of South Korea and China) - whether it is 1996 or 2003, the catalogue of ills never seems to alter in the slightest, nor does the existence of some man on a white horse promising to elect "drastic changes" to get things moving again.

It is with these thoughts in mind that I link to this TIME Asia article on Japan's problems. It may not be an in-depth economic dissertation on the Japanese domestic economy, but I think it does a good job of showing just how inefficient and hidebound Japan's domestic sector really is, in sharp contrast to the image of super-efficiency one is likely to get if one has only exporters like Sony, Honda and Matshushita to look at. Pundits like Paul Krugman would like to believe that Japan's problems are merely monetary in nature, but from where I stand, that sort of thinking is all too reminiscent of the proverb about people with hammers seeing all objects as nails. At the end of the day, the key to increased prosperity is productivity1, and no amount of monetary magic is going to increase productivity of its' own accord, if highly inefficient sectors of an economy continue to go untouched by competition.


1 - Unless one lucks into windfall gains, of course; I am doubtful that any of the Middle Eastern beneficiaries of oil wealth have much more productive non-oil sectors than they did before the coming of the "black gold."

Thursday, October 02, 2003

Gripping Reading

On a whim, I picked up a copy of Michael Chabon's Amazing Adventures of Kavalier and Clay two days ago, and I have to say that it's been truly a pleasure to read thus far. It isn't self-consciously clever in the same ironic, pomo fashion in which a book like Infinite Jest is clever, but this is a book with heart - the characters really grip you, you can't help but empathize with and root for them, and the language flows in a very natural, intelligent manner. I'm having real trouble putting the book down long enough to do anything else; what higher praise could I possibly bestow upon it?

Guardian Unlimited Books | News | Coetzee wins Nobel

I see that the awards committee decided to play it safe this year. This has got to be one of the least surprising and most belated decisions ever to be made for the literature award.

South African writer JM Coetzee has won the 2003 Nobel Prize for literature.

The 63-year-old writer, long a favoured contender, was given the prestigious award for his ability to write stories that "in innumerable guises portrays the surprising involvement of the outsider."

In its citation, the academy said Coetzee's novels are characterised by their well-crafted composition, pregnant dialogue and analytical brilliance. "But at the same time, he is a scrupulous doubter, ruthless in his criticism of the cruel rationalism and cosmetic morality of western civilisation."

Horace Engdahl, the permanent secretary of the academy, said the decision was an easy one.

"We were very much convinced of the lasting value of his contribution to literature. I'm not speaking of the number of books, but the variety, and the very high average quality," he said. "I think he is a writer. . . that will continue to be discussed and analysed and we think he should belong to our literary heritage."

[............]

It is the second time since 1991 that the academy has given the award to a South African. In 1991, they awarded the prize to Nadine Gordimer.

The academy has been Eurocentric in its recent decisions, giving the award to Europeans the last eight years. Since 1980, only three winners have come from Africa, three from South America, two from the United States and one from Asia. It's been 14 years since someone from the Middle East was given the nod, Egyptian Naguib Mahfouz.

Coetzee is renowned for shunning publicity, and never bothered to collect the two Booker prizes he won in 1983 and 1999 (for Disgrace). (emphasis added)

I have to say that I found the highlighted paragraph above annoying. Why the whole "Eurocentric" bit? Are we supposed to extend this sort of ethnic bean-counting to the Nobel Prize as well? There is something deeply wrong with a worldview in which the first thing that springs to mind on an occasion like this is to start tallying recent award winners by region of origin. If the best writers consistently come from a given region, they ought to be awarded the prize consistently. One shouldn't be extending the sort of thinking behind affirmative action, which was supposed to rectify a specific historical injustice, into areas in which it has no business figuring.

Wednesday, October 01, 2003

Reuters - Gene Difference May Explain SARS Epidemic

This is really quite interesting news, and I'd like to see if it holds up under further study:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A genetic susceptibility may explain why SARS raged last year in southeast Asia and nowhere else in the world outside of Toronto, Taiwanese researchers reported this week.

They found a certain variant in an immune system gene called human leukocyte antigen, or HLA, made patients in Taiwan much more likely to develop life-threatening symptoms of SARS.

The gene variant is common in people of southern Chinese descent, the team at Mackay Memorial Hospital in Taipei reported.

Their finding, published in an online journal, BMC Medical Genetics, must be confirmed by independent researchers. But the Taiwanese team said the genetics could explain the puzzling distribution of SARS last year.

"After the outbreak of SARS coronavirus infection in the Guangdong Province of China, it was surprising to observe that the spreading of the disease was mostly confined among southern Asian populations (the Hong Kong people, Vietnamese, Singaporeans and Taiwanese)," they wrote.

[............]

Marie Lin, Chun-Hsiung Huang and colleagues examined the HLA gene in 37 cases of probable SARS, 28 fever patients excluded later as probable SARS, and 101 non-infected health care workers who were exposed or possibly exposed to SARS coronavirus.

"An additional control set of 190 normal healthy unrelated Taiwanese was also used in the analysis," they wrote in their report.

They found that patients with severe cases of SARS were likely to have a version of the HLA gene called HLA-B 4601.

They noted that no indigenous Taiwanese, who make up about 1.5 percent of the population, ever developed SARS. HLA-B 4601 is not seen among indigenous Taiwanese, they noted.

"Interestingly, (HLA-B 4601) is also seldom seen in European populations," they added.

I chose to highlight that last line because it unintentionally betrays the blinkered worldview many people in East Asia seem to have about that portion of humanity that isn't white and Western1. The world doesn't consist of East Asians and Europeans alone, though one would never guess it from this statement. How common is this allele amongst other populations, like Arabs, Indians and even (the horror!) Africans? Fortunately, we don't have to rely on just this particular team of Taiwanese researchers for the information we require. It appears, from the few other references to this allele that I've been able to find, that HLA-B 4601 is actually specific to the East Asian region, so if the study holds up, the rest of us should have nothing to fear.

Update: Here's a Taiwanese government news report that confirms the region-specific nature of this allele.


1 - This is no mere unfounded stereotype. Many East Asians seem to subscribe to some sort of "Great Chain of Being" notion of racial heirarchy, with their own countrymen at the very top, or, at worst, slightly below white people, and everyone else coming after, in descending order of worth as skin hue darkens. This becomes very apparent to any non-white foreigner who steps foot in an East Asian country.

Overheated Rhetoric in the Political Arena

David Brooks states the obvious - that overblown and intemperate attacks on Bush, as with those carried out on Clinton by Republicans, are wrong-headed and counterproductive, even if they happen to feel good. There is nothing like the sort of brazenly partisan hectoring from the sidelines one has seen and heard throughout the last 11 years to send those who might otherwise have been swayed reeling backwards in revulsion at the carpers.

Partisan criticism, like most other commodities, is a normal good, falling in value as supply increases; the problem for would-be partisans is that demand for criticism is highly inelastic, so that the total effect actually diminishes as it rises beyond a certain quantity. Pundits like Krugman, Dowd and the rest would actually be more effective in their attacks if they bothered to acknowledge that not everything this administration has done has been incompetent or malevolent. They could learn a thing or two from Tom Friedman in this respect - one has to give the devil his due, if one wishes to be taken seriously.

Rumsfeld Responds to the Critics

For everyone's sake, I hope that Rumsfeld is right, and that things really are much better on the ground than they've been made out to seem by the media, but if he really is correct, why did the administration feel the need to go back to the UN in the first place? As I've said before, France and Germany aren't in any financial condition to make a big contribution anyway, even if they wanted to, so it can't have been with such expectations in mind that Bush began to seek a new UN resolution. To be perfectly honest, I fear that while Rumsfeld isn't entirely wrong, in the main what we read in this article is simply his stubbornness talking. The truth is that without security nothing of lasting value can be achieved, and as even he admits, the security problem is not under control.

The Art of Spin - Or, Misleading Story Headlines

Schröder's Popularity Dives Amid Harsh Spending Cuts screams the headline of this Independent story, and one might take that to mean that Herr Schröder was making spending cuts the public at large found deeply unpopular; but what do we learn on reading further into the story?

New poll results show a fall in the popularity of the ruling Social Democrats at the expense of record gains for the opposition conservatives, jeopardising Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's attempts to reform Germany's ailing economy.

The poll, by the Forsa research group, showed support for Mr Schröder's party down two points to 26 percent while the popularity of the opposition Christian Democrats has risen to 50 per cent.

The result, which implied that in the event of a snap general election the conservatives could obtain an absolute majority in parliament, was published against the backdrop of an ongoing dispute within the Social Democrats over the government's reform programme.

Left-wingers in the party complained bitterly yesterday that Mr Schröder's attempts to reform the economy with a series of cuts to Germany's generous social welfare, pension and employees' rights provisions had led to an "erosion at the base of the party" with thousands of members handing in their party cards.

Attempts to reach an agreement between the warring factions of the SPD were said to have failed following angry exchanges at a closed party leadership meeting, where one senior party figure was quoted as describing rebel left-wingers as a "cancerous growth".

"It was the most horrible session I have ever experienced in ten years on the committee," Andrea Nahles, spokeswoman for the party's left wing, told Der Tagesspiegel newspaper. "Mr Schröder and other cabinet members just subjected the left to personal attacks. It was a hammerblow." (emphasis added)

Now, I realize that the terms "left" and "right" as applied to Continental Europe don't carry the exact same connotations they do in Britain and America, but the terms aren't so meaningless that one cannot draw certain conclusions from the polling data highlighted above. The CDU and the CSU are, if anything, in favor of deeper spending cuts than those proposed by Schröder, so why would they be virtually twice as popular with the electorate, if the chancellor's spending proposals really were at the root of the SPD's popularity problems?

The truth is that the reining-in of public expenditure is only deeply unpopular with the far left wing dinosaurs within Schröder's own party, and the timidity of Schröder's "reforms" (if they can even be called that) has everything to do with his government's low standing in the polls. For the Independent, however, to admit to anything so straightforward would be a sin against the stridently left-wing orthodoxy that constitutes the paper's stance on all issues. Far better to conflate "spending cuts" with the SPD's unpopularity, rather than admit what the polls show - that the German populace is fed up with left-wing rhetoric that does nothing to provide jobs or economic growth, and that they cannot permanently be distracted from their stagnant situation by anti-American posturing of the sort indulged in so fruitfully to date by Schröder and Chirac, another politician who has milked confrontation on the international stage to distract from his woes at home.

Libertarianism Gone Mad

Do parents have a right to sacrifice their children's lives on the altar of their own ignorance?

Utah Won't Order Cancer Treatment for Boy


By CHRISTOPHER CLARK, Associated Press Writer

SALT LAKE CITY - Utah officials have backed off trying to require a boy diagnosed with terminal cancer to undergo chemotherapy, though a juvenile court judge could still order the treatment. The state also is no longer seeking to take Parker Jensen, 12, from his parents, Daren and Barbara Jensen, who fled the state with their son. The Jensens have said they fear the treatment would stunt Parker's growth and leave him sterile.

Because of his parents' fierce resistance to chemotherapy — recommended by at least four doctors — Parker probably wouldn't benefit from the treatment because of his unreceptive psychological state, said Carol Sisco, a spokeswoman for the Division of Children and Family Services.

The boy's court-appointed attorney in the custody dispute also relented. "My client's been placed in a position where it's almost untenable for him to get medical treatment," said Mollie McDonald.

Daren Jensen said he is skeptical of the state's intentions and reiterated his desire to be in charge of his son's medical treatment, according to Tuesday editions of The Salt Lake Tribune.

"It is time for the parents to take control and move forward," he said.

The Jensens want to pursue alternative treatments for Parker, diagnosed earlier this year with Ewing's sarcoma. They fled Utah in August after the state ordered them to relinquish custody to the state so he could receive chemotherapy. They were charged with kidnapping but later surrendered.

In exchange for keeping Parker, the parents agreed to a new round of tests by an Idaho oncologist, Dr. Martin Johnston, and to abide by his treatment recommendation.

Johnston recommended an 11-month regimen of chemotherapy, but the Jensens maintain new tests do not show signs of cancer in Parker's body.

"They agreed in court that they would follow the doctor's recommendations. They've now said they won't do that. So what can we do?" Sisco said. "Do we take him in custody and force him into chemotherapy? We just don't think that will work."

Daren Jensen told that newspaper that he and his wife have not violated the legal agreement. The Jensens have said they felt coerced to sign the agreement.

"We just told them we would never be happy, nor be convinced that what they were doing was right. We never said we would not comply," he told the newspapers.(emphases added)

These two fools who call themselves parents are going to be allowed to get away with killing their boy, despite the unanimous recommendations of four doctors, simply because state officials wish to make some sort of ridiculous genuflection towards libertarianism, never mind that when it comes to far less critical matters of sexuality and drug use, such open-mindedness gets thrown out of the window. And what sense does it make for anyone to worry about the possible side-effects of chemotherapy on a child's growth and fertility, when going without it almost certainly means he won't be around to finish growing, to attempt to fertilize anyone else, or to do much of anything at all in the long run, other than rot in a cemetary plot?

I followed a discussion over at Reason's Hit and Run weblog over this very issue some time back, and I must say that the crazy, stupid remarks made by many self-proclaimed "libertarians" in the course of that debate are just the sorts of ideologically-inspired nonsense that keep me from wearing the "libertarian" label with full conviction. Ideology should not be turned into a straitjacket on thought, nor venerated as if it were a religious dogma, and there are times when government intervention is simply the right thing to do; this particular case presents one such occasion.

Monday, September 29, 2003

Demise of the Novel Greatly Exaggerated

For my money, I have to say that David Foster Wallace is the single most creative young(ish) writer active today. Not only was Infinite Jest exciting in a way that few writers aspire to any longer, but his Brief Interviews with Hideous Men, though less spectacular in style, was also a fine effort. Dave Eggers hardly stands comparison with DFW, in my opinion, though I have enjoyed Eggers' work with McSweeney's.

Sunday, September 28, 2003

USA Today Poll: Calif. Set to Oust Davis

Truly shocking news:

One week before the vote to recall the two-term Democrat, 63% of probable voters say they'll vote to remove Davis from office. Three-quarters of the electorate is unhappy with his job performance, an approval rating that has been stagnant for months.

Schwarzenegger, a Republican making his first run for elective office, captures 40% of the vote in the poll. His closest pursuer, Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, gets 25%. A poll one week ago by the Public Policy Institute of California had the preferences reversed — Bustamante with 28%, Schwarzenegger 26%. That indicates that Schwarzenegger has gained support after last week's nationally televised debate in Sacramento.

The poll confirms two troublesome trends for Davis: 98% of probable voters have made up their minds, and 91% of them say they're certain or extremely likely to vote. Those numbers predict a high turnout on Oct. 7 and indicate that there are few voters left for Davis to sway. Earlier California polls had shown the percentage of voters favoring recall as low as 53%.

State Sen. Tom McClintock, a conservative Republican who has been under pressure to quit the race and allow the GOP to unite behind Schwarzenegger in this overwhelmingly Democratic state, drew 18% in the poll, up slightly from previous surveys.

McClintock has rebuffed calls to withdraw, but the poll suggests that Schwarzenegger may not need his votes to become the first entertainer to lead California since Ronald Reagan in 1966.

I wonder what the McClintock fanatics are thinking now? This may well turn out to be for the best; if Schwarzenegger does end up winning the governor's office, he won't owe the hard right a single thing. That's what one gets for worshipping at the altar of ideological purity.

BBC - Iran Sticks By Nuclear Programme

Then we'll just have to make them give it up by force, won't we?

Friday, September 26, 2003

A Draft Sequence of the Dog Genome - Or Maybe Not

The New York Times is a great source of general news, but when it comes to science reporting, I usually find its' coverage rather lacking. In consequence, on hearing about the announcement of a draft sequence of the dog genome, I thought it best to turn elsewhere.

There are two things I feel a need to point out about this announcement. The first is that what is being announced is really only 1.5x shotgun coverage of the canine genome, which is really very little. By way of comparison, the fugu genome has been covered to a depth of 5.7x, the mouse genome achieved 7x coverage in 2002, and the finished version of the human genome achieved 8-10x coverage for each chromosome.

The minimum level of shotgun coverage usually required to call a sequence "draft quality" has been at least 3x; given that not even this much has been achieved, why the rush by The Institute for Genomic Research to publish? By their own admission, the assembled sequence so far consists of a massive 2 million fragments covering barely 80% of the canine genome, and it's safe to bet that a substantial proportion of that will be contaminated by bacterial sequences arising from the BACs* used in sequencing. Let's just say that this looks more like another Venter-inspired publicity stunt** than a truly headline-worthy milestone. I expect that once again, the really newsworthy developments will come from a non-profit organization - this time, from the Whitehead Institute, which has already completed a draft sequence of the chimpanzee genome with 4x coverage.

*Bacterial Artificial Chromosomes.
**Something similar occurred with the supposed "race" between Venter and the Human Genome Consortium to create a draft of the Human Genome; it transpired that, far from utilizing some miraculous shortcut unavailable to plodding public researchers, Venter's team was only able to assemble it's shotgun-produced sequences by leaning heavily on the detailed maps so slowly and carefully laid out by the HGC.

There is Something Rotten in the Heart of Brussels

Are these unaccountable paper-pushers the sorts anyone should be eager to cede autonomy to?

EU: Commission Seeks To Fend Off Laxity Charges In Corruption Case

Prague, 25 September 2003 (RFE/RL) -- European Commission President Romano Prodi must be feeling that history repeats itself with unusual speed, as he faces a barrage of questions today from European parliamentarians on alleged corruption at an important European Union agency.

Prodi and his commission took office in 2000 on a pledge of zero tolerance for corruption. That followed the resignation of the previous commission under Jacques Santer, which was beset by allegations of cronyism and mismanagement.

It was the European Parliament that forced Santer and his team to go, and in doing so, the democratic arm of the EU for the first time asserted its power to dismiss the commission. Prodi must be aware of the ominous parallel as he takes questions from parliamentarians today.

Brussels-based political analyst Ben Crum of the Centre for European Policy Studies told RFE/RL that parliamentarians must decide how hard they are going to pursue Prodi. "The question is very much to what extent the [members of the European Parliament] want to push this issue, and whether they in the end want to take the strategic choice of showing their muscle, and showing how important parliament is, by really challenging Prodi," he said. Crum said that, given the heavy fallout that a hard-line approach could bring, the deputies may decide to tread more softly.

The problem relates to the Luxembourg-based Eurostat statistical agency, which is the subject of allegations that millions of euros have gone missing as a result of double accounting, fictitious contracts, and slush funds. The allegations are contained in a report by the EU's antifraud body OLAF, which says the irregularities occurred in the course of Eurostat contracts with outside consulting firms.

Prodi formally presents the OLAF report at today's meeting with parliamentary faction leaders, along with other documentation on the allegations. Internal EU auditors say the questionable practices were set up at Eurostat before 1999. This would tie them to the discredited Santer commission, before the Prodi era.

But the question is whether the alleged abuses continued into Prodi's rule, and if so, why they went apparently unnoticed in a commission dedicated to cleaning up corruption.

Here's the part I really like:

Prodi is expected to resist demands for resignations among his commission team, particularly that of Economic Affairs Commissioner Pedro Solbes of Spain, who has responsibility for Eurostat. Solbes annoyed parliamentarians in July when he told them he could not be held responsible for the fact that he had not been informed of any previous malpractice at Eurostat.

Crum noted also that the European Commission has been kept weak on purpose by EU member governments, and that that fact affects its efficiency. "One of the problems that the College [of Commissioners] has is that it lacks authority. All member governments have always said that the commission and the college is not the 'government for Europe,' and the member states have been really keen to downplay the authority the commission has because they don't want it to infringe too much on their own powers," Crum said.

Crum said this limits the ability of the commission to impose itself on an administration and bureaucracy that has been in existence much longer than the commission itself.

There are two things worth noting here, the first being the shameful reluctance of EU bureaucrats to accept blame, or even to allow their colleagues to take the blame, for any wrongdoing that is discovered during their watch. It would be bad enough if Prodi were trying to simply pass the buck to an underling or a predecessor, but here he is, insisting that even Pedro Solbes should be let off the hook! The second thing that stands out is the manner in which Eurocrats never pass up an opportunity to plead for yet more powers, even when the issue at hand is the abuse of the powers they already have at their disposal. Always the solution to every difficulty is the same - "we lack sufficient authority!" One would be tempted to admire them for the insolence with which they reach out for ever greater authority, were one not enraged by the contempt for the listener's intellect betrayed by such transparently self-serving requests.

For an informed take on the accountability problems faced by the European Commission, this EU Observer article isn't half bad:

EUOBSERVER / DEBATE - Eurostat is not an exception. Eurostat is an example; indeed a very small example of what is going on for many years inside the European Commission, especially in all 'spending DGs', with large amounts of money to spread around.

Insiders know it. 'Wisemen' (such as the 'Wisemen Committee" set up after Santer's Commission resignation) know it. People closely working with the Commission know it. Brussels-based journalists know it. Citizens in Europe feel it.

The situation essentially has nothing to do with the Commissioners, nor with the idea of a vastly corrupted EU bureaucracy (most EU civil servants are honest).

But it has everything to do with the lack of only two controls - political control and judicial - which can prevent an administration, and more precisely its top hierarchy, of becoming, either entirely or partially, a bureaucracy with all its hanging processes of cronyism, corruption and privileges.

No political control and no judicial control naturally lead to illegality.

Whether we like it or not, it is a fact that the European Commission is lacking both of them:

-- Judicially, things are extremely simple. Since 1965, which saw the adoption of a strange annex inside an EU treaty - chapter V of the Protocol annexed to the EC Treaty - EU civil servants have been immune from judicial prosecution for anything that occurs within their activities, even after they retire (Yes, you did read that correctly: immunity, until they die).

Only kings of the ancient times enjoyed such protection. But at least they could be removed … because they were politically responsible (at least via a revolution).

Lifelong immunity from prosecution for civil servants - now how's that for accountability? The more one learns about the internal workings of the European Union, the less sense one is able to make of Tony Blair's desire to plunge the British populace ever deeper into the "heart" of Europe, even if he has to do so against their will. Is he really so contemptuous of the average Briton's powers of reason that he thinks his electorate incapable of making the right decisions, or is he simply so preoccupied with securing his place in history that he is willing to sell out a nation of 60 million individuals to do so?

Thursday, September 25, 2003

The Economist - State Pensions in Europe

In light of my recent comments on the need for pension reform in Europe, I find the publication of the following article quite timely:

Economist.com | State pensions in Europe

Work longer, have more babies

Sep 25th 2003
From The Economist print edition

Europe's pensions crisis won't go away. Governments need to do more, and voters need to accept changes

EUROPE is currently witnessing the slow-motion explosion of the most predictable economic and social time-bomb in its history. As life expectancy began to increase quickly in the second half of the 20th century and fertility began to decline in the 1970s, the foundations of Europe's generous state-pension systems began slowly to crumble. These are pay-as-you-go schemes that force today's workers to finance yesterday's workers' pensions, based on the assumption that workers hugely outnumber retirees. But this has not been true for at least two decades. The current worker-pensioner ratio in Europe has fallen to about three workers for each pensioner, and it looks set to fall to a mere three workers for every two pensioners within 30 years. Most European governments have responded to this looming crisis only with the kind of timid tinkering that does little more than shift the problem to their successors (see article).

This is precisely what the Italian government is about to do. Silvio Berlusconi's pension reform, unveiled this week, will come into effect only in 2008 when the current prime minister is unlikely still to be occupying the Palazzo Chigi in Rome. Instead of speeding up an earlier reform, Mr Berlusconi is merely fiddling with so-called “seniority” pensions that allow workers to retire at 57 if they have been in work for 35 years. Rather than abolishing these next year, as expected, he will continue them until 2008, and offer workers a fat bonus if they carry on working despite being eligible for what is now widely viewed as an over-generous perk.

Mr Berlusconi's loss of courage is typical of similar half-hearted efforts elsewhere. Germany is currently discussing an increase by monthly increments of the retirement age from 65 to 67 between 2011 and 2035, but even this minimal change is proving too much for the left wing of the ruling Social Democratic Party. France passed a law this year that will oblige its public-sector employees to work as long as those employed in the private sector in order to qualify for a full state pension, a welcome reform that should nevertheless have happened years ago. Austria's government dared to push through a rather more ambitious reform this year, but tiny Austria's spending on pensions is also of Italian proportions.

There is little mystery about why governments have been so pusillanimous. Changes to public pension schemes are extremely unpopular with workers and voters. In France and Italy, trade unions have often brought their countries to a standstill at the slightest hint of any change to pensions. Mr Berlusconi's attempts at pension reform played a big part in the downfall of his previous government in 1994.

And yet sooner rather than later, European governments, as well as the voters whom they are supposed to serve, will have to face the unpalatable truth that their current public pension schemes are not sustainable. Addressing that crisis will be painful for everyone, and no single remedy will be enough, but there are measures which both voters and governments should pursue—with some urgency.

First, governments will have to act much more boldly to reduce the scope of the core pay-as-you-go public pension system. Second, employees, public or private, should be encouraged instead to channel their savings into private retirement accounts, either administered by employers or (even better) run directly by fund-management firms, thus taking responsibility for their own retirements. If encouragement does not work, such private savings may have to be made compulsory. Third, the state retirement age should be scrapped, because a fixed pension age makes little sense either for privately-funded pension schemes, which should be encouraged, or for public schemes. Alternatively, or as well, many European countries will have to do something to address the effects of their declining birth rates in order to redress the imbalance between workers and pensioners.

I've emphasized the bit on abolition of a fixed retirement age because it is precisely what I advocated on here a few days ago. I don't see that there's any way to solve this issue without adopting such a remedy, as the scale of population growth required to sustain an adequately high dependency ratio - whether the source be immigration or a new baby boom - would simply be too great to be acceptable; in any case, it would only stave off the inevitable for a while, as all population growth has to slow down at some point, lest we end up all squashed together like sardines. The fiction that it is possible to work for a set number of years, retire, and then enjoy another 20 to 30 years of well-remunerated idleness, is one that will die a hard death, but die it must.

Krista Kafer on School Choice & D.C. on National Review Online

Opportunity For Me, Not For Thee - or, "Congress, Vouchers and Hypocrisy."

This mostly says what I've been saying for quite a while now: congressional hypocrisy on school choice is so brazen that one has to wonder how these creatures manage to live with themselves.

How Bizarre

Ananova - Ban on Russian ads depicting euro having sex with dollar

I see that the Victorian spirit lives on in Russia. What's next, a prohibition on "naked" table legs? One would think the Russian authorities would have more substantive matters to concern themselves with than with tame innuendo like this.

Natanz Delenda Est

U.N. Finds More Weapons-Grade Uranium in Iran - Could anything be less surprising? War is a terrible thing, and not to be advocated on a whim, but all of the wishful thinking in the world isn't going to alter the reality that Iran will only be disarmed by force of arms, nor that it must be.

GOP Pressures McClintock to Yield to Schwarzenegger

This McClintock guy is being unbelievably dumb. What is he thinking, that he has a chance in hell of winning the election? If not, why is he still in the race, and who are the fools who insist on backing him to the bitter end?

Sure, on paper, McClintock seems the more consistent conservative, but politics is, as Bismarck once said, about the art of the possible, and the sort of hard-right agenda McClintock espouses simply isn't acceptable in California. A moderate Republican like Schwarzenegger, with all his failings - not least of which is his refusal to support school vouchers - is about as much as the GOP can realistically hope for in the state at this juncture, and if he were elected, there would at least be the possibility of pushing him to adopt more of the conservative agenda than he has done at present; but if McClintock stays in this race, at the least he'll rob Schwarzenegger of the credibility bestowed by a clearcut margin of victory, and at the worst he'll ensure that either Gray Davis stays in Sacramento, or Cruz Bustamante becomes the next governor of California.

I really don't understand the California GOP - never has an organization seemed so fervently drawn to self-destruction. Perhaps the only political organization that comes close in its' ability to shoot itself in the foot is the British Conservative Party.

Tom Friedman on Cancún

Tom Friedman's latest editorial once again hits the mark:

Connect the Dots
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

The U.S. war on terrorism suffered a huge blow last week — not in Baghdad or Kabul, but on the beaches of Cancún.

Cancún was the site of the latest world trade talks, which fell apart largely because the U.S., the E.U. and Japan refused to give up the lavish subsidies they bestow on their farmers, making the prices of their cotton and agriculture so cheap that developing countries can't compete. This is a disaster because exporting food and textiles is the only way for most developing countries to grow. The Economist quoted a World Bank study that said a Cancún agreement, reducing tariffs and agrisubsidies, could have raised global income by $500 billion a year by 2015 — over 60 percent of which would go to poor countries and pull 144 million people out of poverty.

Sure, poverty doesn't cause terrorism — no one is killing for a raise. But poverty is great for the terrorism business because poverty creates humiliation and stifled aspirations and forces many people to leave their traditional farms to join the alienated urban poor in the cities — all conditions that spawn terrorists.

I would bet any amount of money, though, that when it came to deciding the Bush team's position at Cancún, no thought was given to its impact on the war on terrorism. Wouldn't it have been wise for the U.S. to take the initiative at Cancún, and offer to reduce our farm subsidies and textile tariffs, so some of the poorest countries, like Pakistan and Egypt, could raise their standards of living and sense of dignity, and also become better customers for U.S. goods? Yes, but that would be bad politics. It would mean asking U.S. farmers to sacrifice the ridiculous subsidies they get from our federal government ($3 billion a year for 25,000 cotton farmers) that make it impossible for foreign farmers to sell here.

[............]

"If the sons of American janitors can go die in Iraq to keep us safe," says Robert Wright, author of "Nonzero," a book on global interdependence, "then American cotton farmers, whose average net worth is nearly $1 million, can give up their subsidies to keep us safe. Opening our markets to farm products and textiles would be critical to drawing many nations — including Muslim ones — more deeply into the interdependent web of global capitalism and ultimately democracy."

[............]

If only the Bush team connected the dots, it would see what a nutty war on terrorism it is fighting, explains Mr. Prestowitz. Here, he says, is the Bush war on terrorism: Preach free trade, but don't deliver on it, so Pakistani farmers become more impoverished. Then ask Congress to give a tax break for any American who wants to buy a gas-guzzling Humvee for business use and also ask Congress to resist any efforts to make Detroit increase gasoline mileage in new cars. All this means more U.S. oil imports from Saudi Arabia.

So then the Saudis have more dollars to give to their Wahhabi fundamentalist evangelists, who spend it by building religious schools in Pakistan. The Pakistani farmer we've put out of business with our farm subsidies then sends his sons to the Wahhabi school because it is tuition-free and offers a hot lunch. His sons grow up getting only a Koranic education, so they are totally unprepared for modernity, but they are taught one thing: that America is the source of all their troubles. One of the farmer's sons joins Al Qaeda and is killed in Afghanistan by U.S. Special Forces, and we think we're winning the war on terrorism.

Fat chance.

I know that many of the blogosphere's would-be cognoscenti like to make fun of Friedman, but I find it remarkable how often he manages to escape the pull of reflexive partisanship most other NYT columnists succumb to, in order to get to the heart of an issue. That Europe and Japan are by far the worst offenders in terms of free trade in agriculture does not in any way excuse the Bush administration's current trade policies, and if there is one criticism of Bush I fully endorse, it is that he has been unwilling to stick his neck out in the slightest on behalf of free trade - he talks a good game, but in the end he's all hat and no cattle.

Wednesday, September 24, 2003

Dartmouth Leads the Way (Yet Again), or the Coming of Age of VoIP

A New Kind of Revolution in the Dorms of Dartmouth

Perhaps because of its geographic remoteness, Dartmouth College in the small town of Hanover, N.H., has long been willing to try novel means of communication.
The college introduced e-mail messaging to campus in the 1980's, well ahead of most other higher educational institutions. And in 2001, it was one of the first colleges to install a campuswide wireless data network.
Now, the college is venturing into the world of "voice over Internet protocol," also known as VoIP, which essentially turns a computer into a telephone.
This week, as classes begin, the 1,000 students entering the class of 2007 will be given the option of downloading software, generically known as softphones, onto Windows-based computers.

[............]

Voice over Internet protocol is not new. But running so much voice over a wireless data network is.
"As far as I know, no one has done a wireless voice-over-I.P. network this large before," said David Kotz, a computer science professor at Dartmouth.
The network is being phased in across the entire campus with plans to reach 13,000 people, including faculty and staff.

[............]

The roll out of voice over Internet protocol is closely coupled with Dartmouth's recent decision to stop charging students, faculty and staff for long-distance phone calls. The college made that decision when administrators discovered that the billing function was costing more than the calls themselves.
"One wouldn't be possible without the other," Mr. Johnson said. "Imagine the complexities of trying to track down who made what call when on a large, mobile campus voice-over-I.P. network."

Disclaimer: I went to Dartmouth, so I can't make any pretence at objectivity, but it seems to me that where IT innovation is concerned, the school has long been ahead of certain other, more famous institutions the world at large has long regarded as being pace-setters of some sort. From the days when John Kemeny invented Basic (contrary to Microsoft Encarta's claims on behalf of Bill Gates), to the early 1990s, when computer ownership was mandatory for all incoming freshmen and "blitzing" (emailing) was a more common phenomenon than telephone usage, Dartmouth has been very much a computer-oriented place, and I'm glad to see that the old willingness to embrace the new with enthusiasm remains in place.

Going beyond the parochial musings of a proud alumnus for a second, I think what is most important in this story is the statement that "administrators discovered that the billing function was costing more than the calls themselves." This says something truly profound about the nature of the telecommunications business today. Telecoms operators throughout the world have been reluctant to acknowledge the fact that the days of metered traffic are numbered, but this really helps to put the inevitable shift firmly before the public eye. If cable companies and telecoms providers can offer flat rate broadband services, there is simply no good reason not to extend the paradigm to the offering of all-you-can-eat voice service - other than a desire to protect one's revenues.

Another Serendipitous Discovery

The nature of the relationship between Islam and terrorism, and, taking a broader view, between the Islamic tradition and Western humanism, has been much in the news since the events of September the 11th, 2001. In seeking to understand Islam, many a commentator has tried to draw on the historical development of the religion for insights into its' current state, and in asking where exactly it was that Islam supposedly took a wrong turn down the path of religious obscurantism, the finger has often been pointed in the direction of one individual in particular, namely to the teachings of the theologian Al-Ghazali (1058-1111). It therefore came as a surprise to me to discover that Al-Ghazali's actual thoughts weren't quite as simplistic and anti-rational as they'd been made out to be on so many occasions, as is evident from reading R.J. Kilcullen's Al Ghazali and Averroes. The following excerpt should give a feel for the subtlety of Ghazali's thought:

So [Al-Ghazali] turned to philosophy. He seems to have expected it to be defective. "I was convinced that a man cannot grasp what is defective in any of the Sciences unless he has so complete a grasp of the science in question that he equals its most learned exponents in the application of its fundamental principles, and even goes beyond and surpasses them, probing into some of the tangles and profundities which the very professors of the science have neglected. Then and only then is it possible that what he has to assert about its defects is true.... I realised that to refute a system before understanding it and becoming acquainted with its depths is to act blindly."

[............]

The second group, "the naturalists, see in nature enough of the wonders of God's creation and the inventions of his wisdom to compel them to acknowledge a wise Creator who is aware of the aims and purposes of things. However the naturalists deny immortality, deny resurrection, and deny the future life - heaven, hell, resurrection and judgment". The third group are the theists, who include "Socrates, his pupil Plato, and the latter's pupil Aristotle" (p.268). These theists also did not altogether escape unbelief and heresy. Their mathematical science (e.g. astronomy) is undeniably true, but it has two drawbacks. First, enthusiastic students of philosophy are apt to suppose that since the philosophers have done so well in mathematics, all their philosophy is just as certain. "The second drawback arises from the man who is loyal to Islam but ignorant. He thinks that religion must be defended by rejecting every science connected with the philosophers", and the philosophers then suppose that Islam must be based on ignorance. "A grievous crime indeed against religion has been committed by the man who imagines that Islam is defended by the denial of the mathematical sciences". Similarly religious people who reject the philosophers' science of logic give the impression that religion rests on the rejection of logic. The natural science or physics of the philosophers does not need to be rejected, "except with regard to particular points which I enumerate in my book, The Incoherence of the Philosophers".

[............]

Al-Ghazali goes on to survey the opinions of the philosophers on ethics and politics, and makes a few specific criticisms. He says that in ethics the philosophers have borrowed from religious people. "The philosophers have taken over this teaching and mingled it with their own disquisitions, furtively using this embellishment to sell their rubbishy wares more readily". This has two drawbacks. First, some people rejected the whole mixture. "This is like a man who hears a Christian assert, "There is no god but God, and Jesus is the Messenger of God". The man rejects this, saying, "This is a Christian conception", and does not pause to ask himself whether the Christian is an infidel in respect of this assertion or in respect of his denial of the prophethood of Muhammad (peace be upon him). If he is an infidel only in respect of his denial of Muhammad, then he need not be contradicted in other assertions, true in themselves and not connected with his unbelief". There is no God but God, and Jesus is a messenger of God. "It is customary with weaker intellects thus to take the men as criterion of the truth, and not the truth as criterion of the men .... If it is true, [the intelligent man] accepts it, whether the speaker is a truthful person or not". "If we adopt the attitude of abstaining from every truth that the mind of a heretic has apprehended before us, we should be obliged to abstain from much that is true" (p.273).

Given the time and place in which Al-Ghazali held the notions outlined above, he ought to be reckoned as having been an extraordinarily sharp thinker, rather than the reactionary opponent of rationalism that he has too often been made out to have been.

Kilcurren also has interesting things to say about the ideas of Ibn-Rushd (Averroes), particularly in relation to Al-Ghazali's notions. The whole article is well worth reading, both as an entreé into the world of medieval philosophy, and as a glimpse into a world of islamic intellectual sophistication that has long since vanished from view, with the ascendancy of today's mullahs and sheikhs with their fatwas and incitements to terrorism. It is simple-minded to believe, as many do, that Islam in all its' guises is something to be feared and hated, just as it is stupid to reject all of Christianity on the basis of the Inquisition or the Crusades, but one is justified in wondering if the intellectually curious and sophisticated Islam of Ibn-Rushd, Al-Ghazali, Harun-al-Rashid and Al-Mansur, will ever regain the ascendancy over the simple-minded creed of hate and ignorance that seems to hold pride of place in much of the world today.

Tuesday, September 23, 2003

Iraqi Council Muzzles Al-Jazeera

According to Britain's Times, the Iraqi Governing Council has just passed a resolution expelling the reporting staff of Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya:

Iraqi council bans al-Jazeera reports
From Richard Lloyd Parry in Baghdad
THE US-appointed government in Iraq has banned two of the Arab world’s most popular television channels, The Times learnt yesterday.

The move leaves Paul Bremer, the American civil administrator in Baghdad, facing an acute dilemma. He must now decide whether to enrage the Arab world by approving the resolution, or to veto it and risk a confrontation with his most senior Iraqi supporters.

The Times was told that the Iraqi Governing Council voted in private session to expel reporters from the al-Jazeera and al-Arabiya satellite stations for allegedly inciting violence in Iraq and supporting the anti-coalition insurgency.

The council passed the resolution by 14-2, with three abstentions. The resolution called for reporters on the two channels to be banned from Iraq for one month, pending a review of their broadcasts. “Inciting violence is what these channels proclaim,” said Mudhar Shawkat, a senior member of the Iraqi National Congress who voted for the ban. “They show men in masks carrying guns, and call them ‘the resistance’. They’re not the resistance, they’re thugs and criminals.” He said that sentiment had hardened after Saturday’s attempted assassination of a congress member, Aquila al-Hashimi.

[............]

A Bremer veto would fuel Iraqi suspicions that the IGC was a puppet body, as well as angering its members. But muzzling the stations, regarded by many as champions of Arab nationalism in an international broadcast media biased towards the US and Israel,would further alienate the Arab world.

I'm of two minds about this action. On the one hand, I'm extremely uncomfortable with the notion of censorship, even when the parties to be censored are those, like Al-Jazeera, that go out of their way to glamorize violence as "resistance." Once the precedent has been established, what is there to prevent the Governing Council from prohibiting news agencies that are merely critical of its' policies from operating freely? Surely a better approach would have been to institute legal proceedings against these two newschannels, rather than simply expelling their staff from the country.

On the other hand, armchair theorizing aside, the reality is that Iraq at present is a country without a steady constitutional arrangement or even an independent and respected judiciary, so for me to expect the Governing Council to go the legal route is admittedly a bit unrealistic. There is also the matter of Iraqi sovereignty to consider: as much as it may offend my sensibilities that a governing body should choose, in the manner of a Robert Mugabe, to expel news agencies whose take on events it finds unacceptable, to the degree that sovereignty means anything at all, it also means having the freedom to make poor choices. Bremer cannot insist that the Council is an independent body with real powers of its' own while intervening too visibly to protect its' members from their own mistakes.

In the end, I think Bremer would be wise to let the Council's decision pass, stinker though it may be, while making ostentatiously clear to the Iraqi populace that his preferred policy would have been very different. If the Iraqi population at large finds the decision objectionable, the blame will then accrue where it properly belongs. The one thing not worth paying too much attention to in this decision should be "the Arab world" outside of Iraq's borders - Bremer's constituency ought always to be the people who live within Iraq's borders rather than those outside of it.

Imre Lakatos and Naive Falsificationism

Having read and concurred with Karl Popper's arguments in his Logic of Scientific Discovery, and having since encountered many a statement on the web to the effect that Popper's claims had been invalidated by either Thomas Kuhn or the Duhem-Quine Thesis, I'd long been interested in finding a concise overview of Imre Lakatos' response to the criticisms of falsificationism as proposed by Popper. It was therefore with some pleasure that I came across this particular overview of Lakatos' refinement of Popper's ideas that happens to fit the bill so perfectly. Of course, this is still no substitute for reading Lakatos' own works in the original, but for the casually interested, I think the link above ought to do, at least for a start.

Why is all of this important, you might ask? Certainly, at first glance the whole business seems of no interest to all but those who are interested in rarefied issues of epistemology, but in truth there is a great deal more at stake in the debate over Popper's arguments than is apparent to the casual observer. Popper's main intention in the Logic of Scientific Discovery was to lay out clear demarcating lines between science and pseudoscience, and in laying out that boundary, Popper happened to place two very fashionable schools of thought on what many felt to be the "wrong" side of the border - namely Freudianism and, most importantly, Marxism.

It was Popper's casting of Marxism out from under the veil of scientific respectability with which it had cloaked itself since the 19th century, to take its' place alongside other disreputable subjects like astrology and phrenology, that was the real motivating power behind many of the attacks launched on his work by other intellectuals, the idea being, if not to restore Marxism to its' former pretentions to scientific status, to at least blur the dividing line between science and non-science to the maximum possible extent, by discrediting Popper's programme as hopelessly idealized and/or confused. To say this much does not, however, suffice to refute the criticisms of Popper's claims, for an argument can be logically impeccable even when advanced by those whose motives one distrusts or disdains; no, criticisms must be evaluated on their own merits, rather than on the personal qualities of those who advance them, which is why I think it important to give the closest possible reading not just to Popper's actual arguments, but also to those of critics like Kuhn and Quine, as well as to refinements of Popper's original proposals like that put forward by Lakatos.

Saturday, September 20, 2003

The Martyrdom of Paul Krugman

This Guardian profile cum interview of Paul Krugman really is something, what with it's hagiographical tendencies, and the paranoia behind Krugman's worldview that it reveals:

The letters that Paul Krugman receives these days have to be picked up with tongs, and his employer pays someone to delete the death threats from his email inbox. This isn't something that can be said of most academics, and emphatically not of economic theorists, but Krugman isn't a typical don. Intercepting him in London on his way back home to New Jersey after a holiday in France, I half expect to find a couple of burly minders keeping a close eye on him, although they would probably have to be minders with a sound grasp of Keynesian macroeconomics. "I can't say I never get rattled," the gnomish, bearded 50-year-old Princeton University professor says a little hesitantly, looking every inch the ivory-tower thinker he might once have expected to be. "When it gets personal, I do get rattled."

Aww, poor baby! But on a serious note, there are a few things that need pointing out here. The first is that given Krugman's high profile and the sheer partisanship of his writing, he's bound to get his share of threatening letters from the sorts of political extremists that plague both the left and the right. The second is that Krugman, who loves to call others "liars", is either lying when he says his mail has to be picked up with tongs, or someone on the Guardian's journalistic staff has being doing a bit of creative embellishment: how does the mail get delivered in the first place, if it's as dangerous to deal with as is made out here?

Accustomed to the vigorous ivy league tradition of calling a stupid argument a stupid argument (and isolated, at home in New Jersey, from the Washington dinner-party circuit frequented by so many other political columnists) he has become pretty much the only voice in the mainstream US media to openly and repeatedly accuse George Bush of lying to the American people: first to sell a calamitous tax cut, and then to sell a war.

Again, not only is this not entirely true, as a cursory search on Google ought to establish - 109,000 results at last count, while adding Krugman's name to the search terms returns only 3,000 hits - but it is also revealing, not of a flaw in the "mainstream US media" as both the Guardian and Krugman might wish to believe, but of the paranoia, self-righteousness and sheer abrasiveness evident in Krugman's output as a New York Times columnist.

Amongst the first things one learns, or ought to learn, as a debater - as opposed to a propagandist - is not to call one's opponents "liars" at the drop of a hat, if one has any desire to retain the slightest bit of credibility with those whose views differ at all from one's own. This sort of elementary tact seems entirely alien to Krugman and his admirers, which makes it difficult for the uncommitted to buy what the rest of what they have to say.

"The first three pages of Kissinger's book sent chills down my spine," Krugman writes of A World Restored, the 1957 tome by the man who would later become the unacceptable face of cynical realpolitik. Kissinger, using Napoleon as a case study - but also, Krugman believes, implicitly addressing the rise of fascism in the 1930s - describes what happens when a stable political system is confronted with a "revolutionary power": a radical group that rejects the legitimacy of the system itself.

This, Krugman believes, is precisely the situation in the US today (though he is at pains to point out that he isn't comparing Bush to Hitler in moral terms). The "revolutionary power", in Kissinger's theory, rejects fundamental elements of the system it seeks to control, arguing that they are wrong in principle. For the Bush administration, according to Krugman, that includes social security; the idea of pursuing foreign policy through international institutions; and perhaps even the basic notion that political legitimacy comes from democratic elections - as opposed to, say, from God.


But worse still, Kissinger continued, nobody can quite bring themselves to believe that the revolutionary power really means to do what it claims. "Lulled by a period of stability which had seemed permanent," he wrote, "they find it nearly impossible to take at face value the assertion of the revolutionary power that it means to smash the existing framework." Exactly, says Krugman, who recalls the response to his column about Tom DeLay, the anti-evolutionist Republican leader of the House of Representatives, who claimed, bafflingly, that "nothing is more important in the face of a war than cutting taxes".

"My liberal friends said, 'I'm not interested in what some crazy guy in Congress has to say'," Krugman recalls. "But this is not some crazy guy! This guy runs Congress! There's this fundamental unwillingness to acknowledge the radicalism of the threat we're facing." But those who point out what is happening, Kissinger had already noted long ago, "are considered alarmists; those who counsel adaptation to circumstance are considered balanced and sane." ("Those who take the hard-line rightists now in power at their word are usually accused of being 'shrill', of going over the top," Krugman writes, and he has become well used to such accusations.)

Here we see Krugman's paranoia in full bloom. The Bush administration as a "revolutionary power?" Since when has it been "revolutionary" to govern at home like a left-wing Democratic president, passing pork-laden education and farm bills, caving in to protectionists' demands, and pushing for yet another unfunded entitlement for seniors, as Bush has actually done? One would think left-wingers would be cheering for a guy who has done so much to frustrate the hopes of so many of his core supporters by his free-spending policies, but no, Krugman only sees a "revolutionary."

It gets worse when we actually take a close look at what Krugman considers a "revolutionary agenda" - an alleged rejection of a social security system that is fundamentally unsustainable and badly in need of reform, a refusal to automatically put international institutions ahead of America's foreign policy goals, and finally, a supposed belief in the "divine right of kings" (or should that be "of presidents?") and a disdain for the democratic will of the people for which one can find absolutely no evidence whatsoever in objective reality. If two of the items on Krugman's list of three radical notions are so mundane - and one of the two, Social Security reform, is no more than a wish at this point - and the third is so obviously the product of a febrile imagination, why the surprise that even his own liberal friends find him "shrill" and "over the top?" Oh well, at least we can take comfort in the fact that "he isn't comparing Bush to Hitler in moral terms." One could make a nifty slogan out of that - "Bush: Not Quite as Bad as Hitler, in Moral Terms, Anyway"!

Krugman can expect many more accusations of shrillness now that The Great Unravelling is on the bookshelves in the US. Already, he says, Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the federal reserve, is refusing to talk to him - "because I accused him of being essentially an apologist for Bush". And there will be plenty of invective, presumably, from the conservative commentator Andrew Sullivan, who hauled Krugman over the coals for accepting a $50,000 (£30,000) adviser's fee from Enron. (Krugman ended the arrangement before beginning his New York Times column, and told his readers about it.

"I was a hot property, very much in demand as a speaker to business audiences: I was routinely offered as much as $50,000 to speak to investment banks and consulting firms," he wrote later, by way of justification - demonstrating the knack for blowing his own trumpet that even politically sympathetic colleagues find grating. They say he has had a chip on his shoulder since failing to get a job in the Clinton administration.)

Again, here is a guy who manages to make an enemy of the mild-mannered Alan Greenspan by calling him "an apologist for Bush", and whose ego is so inflated that even the Guardian is unable to pass over the criticisms made by fellow Democratic-leaning economists, and he finds it the slightest bit surprising that so many people should find him so loathsome?

Even when one agrees with Krugman's assessment of the Bush administration's economic policies, the impression one has of the man remains an unfavorable one: of a shrill (yes, Virginia, shrill), paranoid, rude, pushy, arrogant S.O.B whose take on those who don't subscribe to his views is that they are either hopeless fools to be dismissed with a wave of the hand, or depraved wretches who have sold out their principles for the sake of political patronage. Nowhere in Krugman's NYT writing does one get the feeling that what is on view is merely an honest-to-goodness difference in economic philosophies, one rooted in idealistic principles rather than brazen self-seeking, and therefore worthy of hashing out through level-headed argument. For a writer who is held so much in favor by those who disdain Bush's "simplistic" view of the world, Paul Krugman has an unpleasantly Manichaean approach to politics.

Berlusconi Moves on Pension Reform

Italy plans to raise age in pensions reform

I'd say it's about time too, but will this really be enough to stave off disaster in the long run? Given the ever increasing longevity of Western populations, I don't see how one can avoid moving to a system in which the age of retirement is directly indexed to life expectancy - people don't save aggressively enough in their youth, and even when they do save, they fail to allocate enough of their saving into the riskier asset classes, so they end up with retirement nest-eggs that are smaller than they might have expected, while Pay-As-You-Go systems like America's Social Security, and most of Continental Europe's, are nothing more than glorified pyramid schemes.

The fact is that when Bismarck initiated the first pensions scheme way back in the 19th century, it was never anticipated that most people would be living for decades after they'd become eligible to receive the benefits on offer, which is why nobody ever thought to explicitly link these schemes to actuarial data from the start.

Thursday, September 18, 2003

The Economist - Iran's nuclear diplomacy

The Economist has a surprisingly upbeat assessment of US-European unity over the issue of getting Iran to come clean about its' nuclear ambitions, but what if the Iranians simply decide to walk away from the promise of better diplomatic relations and financial cooperation being held out by the EU? Would this new-found unanimity hold under such circumstances, or would the opportunity to obtain short-term benefits simply prove too tempting for certain national leaders?

Jeffrey Zeldman on the Eolas-Microsoft Patent Case

Jeffrey Zeldman asks "Does Microsoft want to lose the plug-in patent case?"

In today’s New York Times, Steve Lohr confirms what was in Paul Festa’s CNET article on 11 September and in our assessment the following day. In that 12 September Report, we chose not to discuss a dark theory: namely, that Microsoft might willingly lose the case because doing so would harm its competitors worse than it hurt Redmond.

We dismissed that idea, not because Microsoft has a history of fair play, but because the company is not ready to capitalize on the annihalation by patent litigation of Real Networks, Macromedia’s Flash, Sun’s Java, and other competitive products and companies. It is not positioned to survive such a holocaust because its next generation product – one that could fare quite nicely in a world without plug-ins – is not on the market yet and will not be available for years.

Nevertheless, the “losing to win it all” theory has been coming to light in mainstream publications that are finally beginning to cover the case.

Zeldman's conclusion - that while such a scheme wouldn't be beyond the pale for Microsoft, it seems unlikely, if only because Longhorn won't be ready to take advantage of it anytime soon - is more charitable than anything I'd grant the men of Redmond. If there's one thing to be taken to heart by those who have watched Microsoft over the years, it is that however diabolically clever you think Bill Gates may be, he is always even more cunning than you suspected.

Michael Ledeen Gets It Too

I don't share Michael Ledeen's vision of giving aid and succor to the internal Iranian resistance (what little there is of it) as means of bringing about the downfall of the theocracy that is currently ruling that country, but this National Review article of his is actually to the point: as Ledeen points out, Iran's entire strategy right now is to play for time by drawing things out with the United Nations, even as it feverishly works on putting together the finishing touches on its' nuclear weapons program.

If there was ever a clearer case in which unilateral military aggression was called for, it would have to be with Iran and its' nuclear ambitions. Nuclear weapons in the hands of theocrats should scare the living daylights out of anyone, especially the Europeans who are within range of the latest generation of Iran's Shahab missiles. Alarm bells should be ringing in London, Berlin and Paris about Iran's intentions, and there is some (limited) evidence that these governments are beginning to pay some attention to the issue, but more jaw-jawing isn't enough. Frankly, I find it ridiculous that America, which is not even directly threatened by Iran's weapons as yet, should be taking the threat more seriously than the European powers that are. What are the leaders of these countries thinking? Do they imagine that a nuclear-armed Iran will have any compunctions about threatening Europe? To the theocrats who run that country, one Western infidel is as good as another, and Paris will serve just as well as Washington D.C. as a nuclear hostage.

Ledeen says that the Bush administration has no intention of attacking Iran, and, unfortunately, I believe him. Given the current difficulties in Iraq, the gigantic budget deficit I have already mentioned, and presidential elections coming up in just over a year, few prospects must seem less appetizing than taking on yet another war in the Middle East. And yet, something must be done, and who better to do it than the Europeans whose lives are most endangered by the Iranian nuclear program? If a joint European defense capability really means anything, this is a good opportunity to put it to the test. Europe has been a security free-rider on America for far too long, and it isn't as if it lacks either the men or the money to deal forcefully with the Iranian threat. Nevertheless, I suspect that France will not be able to resist the temptation to seize yet another opportunity to thumb its' nose at the hated Americans, rather than condescend to the very same sort of "simplistic" unilateral aggression that has ensured that no one in Europe will be living in fear of being incinerated by an Iraqi thermonuclear warhead.

Tom Friedman Gets It

Our War With France

It's time we Americans came to terms with something: France is not just our annoying ally. It is not just our jealous rival. France is becoming our enemy.

If you add up how France behaved in the run-up to the Iraq war (making it impossible for the Security Council to put a real ultimatum to Saddam Hussein that might have avoided a war), and if you look at how France behaved during the war (when its foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin, refused to answer the question of whether he wanted Saddam or America to win in Iraq), and if you watch how France is behaving today (demanding some kind of loopy symbolic transfer of Iraqi sovereignty to some kind of hastily thrown together Iraqi provisional government, with the rest of Iraq's transition to democracy to be overseen more by a divided U.N. than by America), then there is only one conclusion one can draw: France wants America to fail in Iraq.

Those in the Democratic Party who have been pushing for more UN involvement and the need to work with "allies" are either being incredibly naïve, or are themselves hoping that some sort of quagmire ensues. There is little to be gained by going the UN route and opening things up for interference from self-seeking parties like the various despotisms bordering Iraq, and nothing at all to be obtained by providing a covertly belligerent power like France with the opportunity for sabotage it has for so long been seeking.

I consider it a failure of leadership on Bush's part that he should have let postwar reconstruction drift so badly and for so long that he opened himself up to the sort of pressure that eventually brought him to look for UN assistance. It ought to have been obvious from the start that "regime-change" in Iraq would neither be cheap nor quick, and fools like Wolfowitz who went on about how Iraq could pay for its' reconstruction out of its' own oil revenues have no place running American foreign policy. If Iraq was important enough to defy the will of the international community to attack, its' reconstruction ought to have been important enough to warrant budgeting seriously for, but this the Bush administration egregiously failed to do, as was evident to any sensible person at the time.

I have no faith in the panaceas being peddled by any of the "multilateralists" in the Democratic Party, but they are surely correct in pointing out the grave lapses in both planning and execution that have been the hallmark of America's post-war presence in Iraq.

IMF Sees Faster U.S. Growth

More good news on the economic front. The IMF revises its' U.S. growth estimates upwards, to 2.6 percent this year, and 3.9 percent in 2004. That's still not quite enough to meet Brad DeLong's estimate of 4 percent growth to reduce the unemployment rate, but I have a feeling that the growth numbers will be revised upwards yet again before this year is through.

The big point of worry is the same one that DeLong has been worrying about - the sheer scale of the American current account deficit, and the danger of a sudden sharp decline in the value of the dollar it risks precipitating. Bush has got to do something about the rate of government spending; the situation has simply gotten out of control, with the government deficit forecast at $525 billion (4.7 percent of GDP) for next year - far worse than the ~ 3.5 to 3.9 percent budget gaps with which the Europeans are struggling.

Wednesday, September 17, 2003

A Journey Into the Land That Time Forgot

Britain's Times has an informative article by Oliver August about his eight-day visit to North Korea

DURING lunch at one of the few hotels reserved for foreigners in North Korea’s capital, I jokingly complained to a friend that there was no complimentary shampoo in the rooms. A few hours later we found bottles placed neatly by the rooms’ showers.

These are the sort of tricks that one expects from the security apparatus of a totalitarian regime. You could see the wires connecting the microphone poorly concealed behind a wall panel in the hotel restaurant. Presumably they wanted us to know that they listened to everything we said.

North Korea is commonly described as the world’s last Stalinist country, a “hermit kingdom” closed to outsiders, a giant gulag of 20 million people. But even these labels do not do justice to the bizarre picture that emerges from a rare eight days of travelling inside it.

Surveillance of visitors is constant. Tour routes are tightly restricted to hide the severe lack of sustenance that is said to have killed hundreds of thousands of people in the past decade. But the intellectual starvation of an entire society is harder to disguise. Five decades of relentless brainwashing and oppression has visibly extinguished part of the inmates’ humanity.

Many North Koreans seem to have “unlearnt” basic instincts, such as curiosity. One morning I escaped my minders, using a pair of inline skates that I had taken with me. For an hour I zipped solo through the streets of Pyongyang. Not one ordinary North Korean took note of me.

In any other remote country, people would have waved or frowned or at least stared if they saw a white man using such an unusual form of of transport. Instead, people averted their gaze.

Unauthorised contact with a foreigner is a crime. Merely taking an interest in my presence might get them reported by a neighbour during weekly “criticism sessions”, where citizens denounce each other in front of a committee of the ruling Korean Workers’ Party. For many this is the first step to a labour camp.

[............]

The streets are mostly ruled by a code of uniformity and people wear either Mao-style tunics introduced by Mr Kim’s father, the nation’s founder, or a pin on their lapels showing his face.

The arts are equally stunted and suffused with ideology. All literature and filmed entertainment carries an identical political message. One day my minders took me to a performance at the Children’s Palaces. Hundreds of under-ten-year-olds sang folk songs and danced in military formations. The screen behind them showed footage from tank exercises, naval combat scenes and missile launch sequences. This was considered light entertainment.

The many public monuments depict either the country’s founder and his son, or generic workers and soldiers. No citizen is allowed any prominence. On television, people are rarely shown except in groups, and applause is hardly ever directed at an individual.

[............]

The longer I stayed in this bleak country — leashed to my minders — the more frustrated I became. Most shameful was the feeding game that they played with foreigners. To counter the image of a starving country, we were always given more food than we could possibly eat: a meal had at least seven courses. If you came close to finishing, they would double the portions the next day.

But there were details betraying real scarcity. The feasts were elaborate, but toothpicks seemed to be rationed to one per person.

Despite everything, there was still the occasional person prepared to risk showing an interest in the outside world. One day, a man asked me if I had any spare books. “I want to know about foreign countries,” he said. I gave him The World of Suzie Wong, the novel about a prostitute in post-war Hong Kong; it was hardly appropriate, but nicely subversive.

He said that he had studied in China at the time of the Tiananmen Square student protest. He said of the spring of 1989: “It was very exciting. We were free then, for a short period.”

A few days later in Wonsan, a port city five hours by car from Pyongyang, I sat on the pier at sunset. During daylight I was to all intents and purposes invisible to the North Koreans around me. They avoided all eye contact; some crossed the road to avoid passing me.

But as darkness fell their reactions were transformed. Within minutes people started to act as they would elsewhere in the world. Some came close and stared. Others tried a few words of English. I also noticed couples furtively holding hands: committing the grave crime of showing public affection for someone other than their leaders.

Earlier, I had pitied the North Koreans for the absolute darkness that descended every night due to the lack of electricity. There were no street lamps and almost no indoor lights.

Now I realised that the dark was their salvation. Neighbours could no longer spy on them. It was in the dark that the human spirit survived for the day when North Korea will be free.

When Bush called North Korea "evil", many would-be sophisticates sneered at the "simplisme" betrayed by his statement; there was much jesting about "cowboys" and "evildoers", and there was no shortage of world-weary intellectuals to berate the Americans for their dangerously "Manichean" vision of the world. Stories like this one give the lie to the notion that Bush was being either "simplistic" or "Manichean" in his description of North Korea. This is a truly monstrous regime, ont that must be faced down rather propitiated, and it simply will not do to say "Yes, Kim Jung Il is terrible, but ..."

Don't Rush to Disaster (washingtonpost.com)

In this article, Fareed Zakaria makes the exact same point I'd made a few days ago: that a hasty handover in Iraq, as advocated by the French, would be a disaster.

It is strange that U.N. officials argue that we must quickly move, in Kofi Annan's phrase, from "the logic of occupation" to that of Iraqi sovereignty. The United Nations has blessed and assisted in the occupation of Bosnia, where it took seven years to transfer power to the locals. It boasts of "the logic of occupation" in Kosovo, which has gone smoothly for the past four years, with no prospect of ending anytime soon. It administered tiny East Timor for two years before handing over power. Does Kofi Annan really think that what took seven years in Bosnia can take one year in Iraq, with six times as many people?

It is touching to learn of the French faith in the Governing Council. When the council was set up, the French government (as well as the Germans) refused to endorse it, privately disparaging the group as American puppets. It took a month for the United States to get France to vote in the Security Council simply to welcome the formation of the Governing Council. France's newfound love for the council is simply an attempt to get the United States out as soon as possible.

Tuesday, September 16, 2003

U.S. No. 1 in School Spending, Not Scores

We're always hearing the Democrats and the teachers' unions complain about the meagreness of the resources they have to make do with in carrying out their duties, so this bit of news makes for particularly interesting reading:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The United States spends more public and private money on education than other major countries, but its performance doesn't measure up in areas ranging from high-school graduation rates to test scores in math, reading and science, a new report shows.

``There are countries which don't get the bang for the bucks, and the U.S. is one of them,'' said Barry McGaw, education director for the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which produced the annual review of industrialized nations.

The United States spent $10,240 per student from elementary school through college in 2000, according to the report. The average was $6,361 among more than 25 nations.

Yet the United States finished in the middle of the pack in its 15-year-olds' performance on math, reading and science in 2000, and its high-school graduation rate was below the international average in 2001 -- figures highlighted by Education Secretary Rod Paige.

Now, what was that about needing more money again?

WTO Talks Collapse

The Economist has an insightful take on the story behind the collapse of the negotiations at Cancun. Though I usually find myself in agreement with Brad DeLong on matters of international trade, this time I find his take on the causes of failure rather politically jaundiced.

In 1996, ministers met in Singapore and talked about incorporating rules on foreign investment, competition policy, government purchases and "trade facilitation" (things like customs clearance) into the WTO. It was time, said some, to write the rules for globalisation. Poor countries, and some rich ones, demurred. While some of the proposed rules make sense on their own terms (who could be against swift customs clearance or transparency in government procurement?) it was not clear why the WTO, or any global organisation, should write and police those rules.

Poor countries in particular did not want to take on a whole new set of international obligations, which would be as costly to implement and monitor as the intellectual property rules they signed up to in the Uruguay round. Some poor countries, after all, do not even have a competition commission. Moreover, if they signed up to new obligations, then failed to fulfil them, they could be hit with trade sanctions.

Rules on foreign investment proved especially controversial in Cancún. Proponents of globalisation have long argued that inward investment not only brings new money into a poor country, it also brings new expertise and technology, which "spills over" to local firms and workers. Poor-country governments have devised many a strategy to encourage these spill-overs, by requiring foreign companies to undertake joint ventures with local firms, for example. They fear that rich countries want to take these rules on investment out of their hands. On Thursday, no fewer than 70 poor countries, led by Malaysia and India, declared that they would not countenance inclusion of the Singapore issues at Cancún. On Sunday afternoon, the European Union suggested that talks on trade facilitation and government procurement be launched now, and that discussions of investment and competition policy be held at future summits. But South Korea (backed by Japan) insisted they talk about all four Singapore issues; the African Union, meanwhile, refused to discuss any. At that point, Mr Derbez threw in the towel.

It is clear why poor countries do not want to hear about the Singapore issues. But why are some richer countries so keen to talk about them? The United States, which invests a great deal abroad, has some interest in protecting those investments with WTO rules. But the Americans are quite diffident about the rest of the Singapore agenda. They would not take kindly, for example, to having the antitrust decisions of their judges trumped by a world competition policy set at the WTO's headquarters in Geneva. The main proponents of the Singapore issues are the EU, already accustomed to supranational rules on competition and government procurement, and Japan. But even among the EU's members, opinion is divided, and few companies are throwing their weight behind the Singapore issues.

Some cynics suggest that the Singapore issues are just chaff thrown up by the EU and Japan to disguise their own intransigence over agriculture. Ever since the current round of trade talks was launched in 2001, Japan and the EU have been on the defensive. The Doha round's focus on agricultural liberalisation has forced them to defend some of the most illiberal but well-entrenched systems of agricultural protection in the world. Japan's import tariffs on rice go up to 1,000%. The EU spends more on annual subsidies for each of its cows than most sub-Saharan Africans earn in a year. Both insist on progress on the Singapore issues as a quid pro quo for long-overdue agricultural reforms that still seem politically beyond them. If poor countries refuse to yield ground, the EU and Japan can blame them for their inflexibility over the Singapore issues, rather than taking the blame for their own inflexibility over agriculture.

The Economist article should make clear enough that, contrary to DeLong's supposition, the collapse of the Cancun talks cannot be blamed on "the cretinous, malevolent, and incompetent servants (the Bob Zoellicks, the Karl Roves) of an unrepresentative minority government." As bad as Bush's record on trade has been, with the steel quota, the farm bill, and squabbles over Canadian lumber and Vietnamese catfish, the United States still comes out of this mess looking like an angel by comparison with the breathtaking cynicism evinced by the Europeans and the Japanese.

Luxembourg's Prime Minister Decries EU Deficit Pact "Fetishists"

This is really quite amusing:

STRESA, Italy, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker backed France in a controversy over deficits as he met euro zone finance ministers on Saturday, and he decried what he called the strict "fetishists' view" of EU stability pact rules.

"What's essential is to ensure stability and economic growth and if we can do that on a solid basis in 2005 with a very clear system, that's the way to go," Juncker, who doubles up as prime minister and finance minister of his country, told reporters.

After France sparked a furore by saying it would not be able to respect the upper deficit limit of the EU stability pact until 2006, French Finance Minister Francis Mer said on Friday that Paris would aim to get back in line in 2005.

Several countries, above all the Netherlands and Austria, had led a charge against France, demanding that the Stability and Growth Pact be respected by all in the euro zone and not to make exceptions for countries like France.

The European Commission has also demanded that France do more to respect the rules and get its deficit back under the pact's upper limit for national deficits -- three percent of gross domestic product.

"Why demand it right now and shout from the rooftops that it must be done on October 28, 2004, if there's a guarantee it can be done in 2005?" he said.

"I don't like the fetishists' view on this issue," Juncker, a veteran of EU politics and the negotiations that led to the creation of the euro currency, said on the second day of talks with colleagues in the northern Italian lakeside resort town of Stresa.

I agree to some extent with Mr. Juncker's statement that the Stability Pact makes a fetish of balanced budgets, but I think his criticism are nonetheless off the mark. The issue isn't whether or not the pact's terms are being too strictly interpreted, but whether it and other EU rules are to be interpreted in the same manner for all member states, whether they are major powers like France and Germany, or smaller fry like Austria and the Netherlands. These smaller countries cannot be expected to sit idly by as the rules they themselves must abide by are suspended for the French. If the European Union is to be run as a Franco-German club, then what incentive is there for the rest of Europe to participate?

Sweden Rejects the Euro

What a surprise! And what I found even more surprising was the margin of victory - a huge 14.3%. I'd been expecting the pro-Euro camp to ride to victory on the back of the sympathy factor, what with all the press coverage that made Anne Lindh out to be the second coming of Mother Teresa, but it seems I underestimated the Swedes' ability to separate their feelings of grief from hard-headed calculations about the best choice for their country. In my defense, I can only say that the results of the 2000 election race between John Ashcroft and Mel Carnahan, in which Carnahan's death led to an election day surge for the dead candidate, and the taking of the Senatorial office by his wife, who was never even a participant in the electoral contest, was enough to make anyone doubt for the rationality of the average person.

None of the arguments made on behalf of joining the Euro made any sense, whether considered from an economic or a political angle. The claim that the Euro would bring big economic benefits was never plausible on its' face: the EU is very far from being an optimal currency area, and income flows on the scale that would be required to counterbalance any asymmetric shocks to Eurozone countries are simply politically unimaginable anytime in the near future. Labor mobility is extremely low, even within most European countries, while the linguistic barriers are such that the only direction in which labor could easily flow would be towards the UK and Ireland, because of the demands by employers in even the smallest countries that all employees speak the local language fluently. Can anyone reasonably imagine a day when the Danes, the Dutch or the Portuguese would agree to the adoption of German or (most likely) English as the official working language within their own borders?

But even leaving aside the language issue for the moment, there is still the fact that academic credentials are not automatically recognized or correctly evaluated outside of the countries they are issued, that legal and professional standards differ across all EU countries, that moving from one country to another often means losing all your pension contributions, and a host of other imperfections in the labor market that ensure Europe will not be looking like America, where moving from one coast to another is a routine matter, anytime soon.

For Sweden to have surrendered the Krona for the Euro would have meant the loss of the power to set its' own interest rates, in exchange for the dubious privilege of permitting the European Central Bank to set Europe-wide rates, in the calculations for which all of Sweden's 9 million inhabitants would have counted for less than the Paris metropolitan area (9.7 million) or the German region of Bavaria (12 million); to stretch the clichéd metaphor so beloved of EU politicians and bureaucrats, Sweden would have traded in a table all of its' own for the pleasure of being just one more pipsqueak voice at the Round Table where the Big Boys of France, Germany and Italy would get to call the shots - some deal!

Matters weren't helped by the flagrant disregard that France, that scourge of high-handed unilateralism and national self-interest, has displayed towards the strictures of the Growth and Stability Pact. France is not alone in being in breach of the pact's rules, with Germany once again playing the role of faithful sidekick in this little misadventure, but at least the Germans have had the decency to pay lip service to meeting its' terms, for fear of offending smaller countries like the Netherlands and Belgium that did their belt-tightening when it was needed. No, France, being France, does everything with typical Gallic insouciance and hauteur, with Prime Minister Raffarin supposedly proclaiming “my first duty is employment and not to solve accounting equations and do mathematical problems until some office or other in some country or other is satisfied." What style, what elegance of language! Just the sort of flagrant violating of rules by one of Europe's "bigs" to get smaller players like Sweden convinced that theirs will be a voice to be respected within the Eurozone! Bravo, mes amis!

It was only to be expected that the EU bigwigs would come out with a bit of finger-wagging at the naughty Swedes who had failed to take their medicine as they'd been chided to, and indeed, Romano Prodi did not disappoint, muttering about how Sweden "would lose influence," as if there were ever any "influence" to be gained or maintained by surrendering all control of monetary policy to the European Central Bank. But, if Europe's political class are at all sensible, they would do well to draw the necessary conclusions from this poll, for despite the backing of nearly all of Sweden's parties, ranging across the entirety of the political spectrum, as well as all of the major Swedish newspapers and the entirety of the business class, and despite the pro-Euro campaigners outspending their opponents by the heftiest of margins, they still failed to cajole the Swedish populace into going along with their plans. What more proof could be required that there is something wrong with both the pace at which unification and centralization are occurring, and the manner in which they are being carried out?

If this weren't a Scandinavian country we were talking about, the political class would already be making arrangements for yet another poll within a year or two, with the aim in view of repeating the exercise ad nauseum until an "acceptable" result is obtained. Such was the case with Ireland and the Nice Treaty, and I certainly wouldn't put that sort of cynical politicking beyond Tony Blair, who still refuses to accept that the proposed European Constitution is worth putting before the public in a referendum. Fortunately for the Swedes, their political class tends to be a tad bit more respectful of the wishes of their masters than those of Britain or Continental Europe, and Goran Persson has given his word that there won't be another referendum for the next 10 years. This will make the job of British Europhiles exponentially more difficult, as the main, bogus, argument they've been able to muster has been that Britain could not afford to stay out of the Eurozone for fear of being "left behind", or not having "a seat at the table." It won't be possible to trot out nonsense about the British economy being too small to remain outside the Euro if tiny Sweden and Denmark, not to speak of little Switzerland, manage to prosper outside of its' borders.

Sunday, September 14, 2003

George F. Will on the D.C. Voucher Program

A good article, and one that repeats many of the same arguments I've already made on this blog:

Vouching for Children

By George F. Will

Sunday, September 14, 2003; Page B07

Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio) no longer attends the annual picnic held here by District of Columbia supporters of school choice. During the picnic there are lottery drawings to award scholarships empowering a few children to escape from the nation's worst -- and, in per-pupil spending, third-most lavishly funded -- school system. Boehner stopped attending because he could not bear the desperate anxiety, and crushing disappointment, of parents whose hopes for their children hung on the lottery. "I'd stand there and cry the whole time," he says.

Bill Clinton, who could cry out of one eye, was dry-eyed about the plight of D.C.'s poor: He vetoed a school-choice bill for them in 1998. He felt the pain of the strong, the teachers' unions who were feeling menaced by the weak -- by poor parents trying to emancipate their children from the public education plantation.

Boehner, who understands the patience of politics, began championing school choice as a state legislator two decades ago. Last Tuesday the House passed a small ($10 million) experimental school choice voucher program for at least 1,300 of the District's 68,000 students. This bill, skillfully managed by Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) passed, 209-208, only because two Democratic members, presidential candidates Dick Gephardt and Dennis Kucinich, were in Baltimore at a debate sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus, proclaiming their compassion for poor people.

"I have 11 brothers and sisters -- my father owned a bar," says Boehner, who is not suggesting effect and cause but rather that "growing up in a large family and around a bar was great training for what I do every day" -- an intriguing commentary on the House. Boehner understands the privations parents often must endure to give their children educational opportunities.

He knows D.C. parents are motivated by research showing that the longer a child attends D.C.'s schools, the worse are the child's chances in life. Also, the D.C. teachers union, a tentacle of the national unions fighting to prevent what they call the "flight" of parents to better schools, has been looted of millions of dollars, much of it allegedly spent by some union officials on personal purchases of luxury goods.

For years opponents of school choice for poor children have leapt from one sinking argument to another. All their arguments have now sunk:

Choice programs that empower parents to choose religious schools are unconstitutional? Seven consecutive Supreme Court decisions say otherwise.

Choice programs take money from public schools? The D.C. program takes not a penny -- the $10 million would be new money.

Choice programs skim the best students from the public system? Davis's bill gives priority to students in the District's 15 worst-performing schools.

Choice programs lack accountability? The academic progress of participants in the program will be measured against the progress of the students who sought but failed to get any of the 1,300 scholarships.

Given all this, why did the D.C. program barely pass? With states' budgets forcing painful cuts, it can be difficult to vote money for D.C. children. Even more important is the fact that teachers unions are especially effective at the state level, where they establish relationships with legislators -- and 233 current representatives and 42 senators are former state legislators.

In the Senate committee vote on D.C. school choice, two Democrats, West Virginia's Robert Byrd and California's Dianne Feinstein, supported the program. Mary Landrieu, the Louisiana Democrat who abstained, explained to some disappointed D.C. parents that the maximum grant under the proposed D.C. program -- $7,500 -- would not be enough to send a poor child to the $21,000-a-year private school her children attend.

Hypocrites like Mary Landrieu want to argue that because poor parents wouldn't be able to send their children to Georgetown Day (which her own precious cherubs attend) even if they were provided with these vouchers, they shouldn't have the option of sending them anywhere else at all; and yet liberals like to claim that the Republicans are the "heartless" party ...

Journalistic Bias on Display

Here's what a New York Times journalist has to say about the differences between America and France over the proper pace at which authority ought to be handed over:

U.S.-French Rift Reopened as Powell Arrives for Talks
By STEVEN R. WEISMAN

GENEVA, Saturday, Sept. 13 — Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, reopening the trans-Atlantic rift over Iraq — this time about expanding the authority of the United Nations there — said today that a French proposal to cut back the role of the American-led occupation was unacceptable.

Arriving in Geneva after midnight for intensive talks on Saturday about what role the United Nations should play, Mr. Powell also labeled as "totally unrealistic" a French suggestion that Iraq establish a provisional government in a month, write a constitution by the end of this year and hold elections next spring, all under United Nations auspices.

[............]

American officials say they are hopeful that another confrontation can be avoided, in part because this time Germany and Russia seem to be trying hard to bridge the differences between France and the United States. But they say they do not expect any breakthroughs this weekend.

A sign of the difficulty came in today's Le Monde, the leading French newspaper, in which the foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin, wrote that it was "urgent to transfer sovereignty to the Iraqi people themselves." The transfer, he said, must be carried out under United Nations and not American auspices.

France has said several times that the United States must move beyond "the logic of occupation" if it is to win support from the international community for a multinational troop presence and, even more, for the billions of dollars that Washington seeks for Iraq's reconstruction.

Such talk is clearly exasperating to Mr. Powell and other American officials. Before leaving for Europe on this trip, Mr. Powell gave interviews to French, Russian and German media in which he all but ridiculed the idea that somehow the United States was wedded to being an occupier.

"Nobody wants to turn sovereignty back to the Iraqi people as fast as the United States does, President Bush does and I do," Mr. Powell told France 2, a television network. But he said that the American occupation under "can't suddenly just step aside and turn it over — to whom?"

[............]

American officials said that they remained hopeful that they could avoid a nasty dispute that would lead to a veto by France or any other of the permanent members of the Security Council. In addition, Mr. Powell said the United States could probably get at least nine countries on the Council to support its basic approach, enough to have the resolution approved if there is no veto.

"If there is anything that worried me, it would be a veto," Mr. Powell said.

"We need to get out of some of the rhetorical arguments we're having," he told French television. "One I hear is that the United States believes in the logic of occupation. Nonsense. Every European should know that the United States of America has always believed in the logic of liberation." (emphasis added)

Well, isn't that curious? France makes a clearly absurd proposal, but in Steven Weisman's eyes, it is Colin Powell who is "reopening the trans-Atlantic rift"! Why doesn't he pin the blame on the party that insists on talking about a "logic of occupation" (whatever that means, given the French love affair with nebulous but fine-sounding phrases)?

Let us inject a little logic into the discussion here, and ask ourselves why a nation that is incurring billions of dollars in costs each month its' soldiers remain in Iraq, should wish to endorse a "logic of occupation", especially in light of the gigantic budget deficit it needs to address, and an upcoming presidential election in which expenditures in Iraq are bound to be a big issue. Does any of that make the slightest bit of sense? And yet, by French logic, it must all be true. The New York Times' take on the issue indicates that its' editorial staff has no problem with this peculiar take on the whole business.

A Stiff-Necked People

From the Daily Telegraph we learn the following:

France accused as UN summit on Iraq stalls
By David Wastell, Diplomatic Correspondent
(Filed: 14/09/2003)

Foreign ministers of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council failed to overcome differences on a timetable for handing over power in Iraq yesterday as France came under fire for making "unrealistic" demands.

Colin Powell, the United States secretary of state, said he was "encouraged" by talks in Geneva aimed at agreeing the framework for a UN resolution to set up a multinational force in Iraq. Kofi Annan, the UN Secretary General, said consensus was both "essential and achievable".

There was no sign, however, that France was backing down from its insistence that the coalition must hand over all powers to the interim Iraqi authority within a month - a deadline Britain and America regard as impossible.

Mr Powell sharply rebuffed French demands for power to be transferred to the interim Iraqi authority next month.

"Nobody wants to turn sovereignty back to the Iraqis as fast as the United States does, President Bush does and I do," he told French television before the meeting. But the handover deadline proposed by Dominique de Villepin, France's foreign minister, in a newspaper article last week was "totally unrealistic".

Mr Powell added: "It would be delightful if one could do that, but one can't do that. I cannot anticipate us agreeing to any language that would buy into what Minister de Villepin has been saying."

Diplomats said that Mr de Villepin did not explicitly repeat his call during the talks, but said the handover should be completed "by the autumn".

[............]

French demands for almost immediate restoration of Iraqi sovereignty were echoed yesterday by Adnan Pachachi, a member of the US-appointed governing council in Baghdad. He said he and his 24 colleagues wanted the fastest possible transfer of authority.

France also wants a new constitution for Iraq to be settled by next spring, and a commitment to May elections. During yesterday's meeting, Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, pointed out that London and Washington had already said they hoped to see a new constitution in place by next summer, with elections to follow soon after.

He said later: "What we've agreed that we all want to see is the transfer of power to the Iraqi people as quickly as possible, but we must do so in a way that ensures security and good government."

Why do the French always insist on being the skunk at the garden party? First it was the money-grubbing holdup of the lifting of UN sanctions on Libya, then we have this ridiculous set of demands. No one can claim that France is simply asking for a measure of authority commensurate with the responsibilities it is being asked to undertake here, as for one thing, France has yet to make any concrete offers of either men or money, and in light of its' present difficulties with meeting the terms of the Stability Pact, is probably in no condition to bring much to the table, even if it wants to - which it almost certainly does not.

No, this has nothing to do with "reason", and everything to do with being as much of a pain in the neck to the Americans as possible. How else can one interprete demands to hand over all power to the interim Iraqi authority within a month? France, of all countries, being a former colonial power, should realize the magnitude of the tasks that must be completed before such a step can be undertaken, and that to simply dump all responsibility in the interim authority's lap would be to guarantee chaos down the line.

The institutions of government take time to build, constitutions need careful deliberation, vetting and approval, election districts must be negotiated, voters registered - the list of things to do, and which the Iraqis are manifestly unqualified of doing, given their lack of any experience with constitutional government, is simply overwhelming. Having everything up and running within 3 years would be an astonishingly swift accomplishment; demanding that it all happen in the span of 9 months, as France is doing, is a sign of madness. One has to wonder what point there was in bringing this whole business to the UN to begin with, given the opportunity France's veto power in the Security Council gives it to engage in mischief. Neither it nor Germany are in a position to really offer anything in return for the outsized demands they are making, other than a mostly symbolic seal of approval.

Trouble in Guinea-Bissau

It looks like there's been a coup in Guinea-Bissau:

Soldiers Seize Power in Guinea - Bissau
By REUTERS

Filed at 6:33 a.m. ET

BISSAU (Reuters) - Soldiers seized power Sunday in the tiny coup-prone West African nation of Guinea-Bissau and pledged to restore constitutional order to the impoverished former Portuguese colony.

After a dawn putsch, troops carrying automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenade launchers patrolled the center of the capital Bissau on Sunday morning. No shooting was heard.

Army Chief of Staff Verissimo Correia issued a statement saying the military had dissolved all state institutions and set up a military committee to restore democracy.

Correia said the army was imposing a night curfew and that army chiefs would meet the government later Sunday. President Kumba Yalla was believed to be in his home.

Yalla came to power in January 2000 after elections designed to end chronic unrest following an army revolt in 1998 but he has since faced two attempted coups and has had to reshuffle the government several times.

This cannot be allowed to stand. The first thing these over-ambitious army officers always say after pulling one of these stunts is that they intend to "restore democracy"; the one thing about which one can be certain is that they have no such aim in mind. What one would like to see now is a forceful response from regional and Western powers, warning the coup-plotters to either give up their arms immediately or expect to have constitutional government restored by means of external force. The message needs to be sent in Africa that the when soldiers could get away with overthrowing elected governments are over.

Conversational Terrorism, or How NOT to Talk!

If there's one thing that's available in excess quantities in public life, it's cheap, meaningless talk. This compilation of common gambits and strategems misused in the course of debate has been kicking around the web for quite a while, but it still manages to make me laugh however often I read it. A fun game to play is to see how many of the tactics that are mentioned by the VanDruffs manage to make an appearance in the course of a televised debate or online argument. It is pretty much guaranteed that at least one will be on display in any blog thread that runs to more than 10 comments, while the average 15 minute television segment will squeeze in at least 4, if not more.

Nothing Like a Nice Bit of Lebensraum

This really must be seen to be believed - a Home and Gardens spread on Berchtesgarden from the 1930s. What is stranger still is that it seems to have been done with Hitler's full cooperation. I'd have taken it for a parody if it didn't all seem so genuine. This just goes to show how good Hitler was at marketing himself to the world as just a "regular Hans", as concerned with home improvement as your average suburban do-it-yourselfer. We flatter ourselves when we imagine that we'd be able to recognize another such monster if he were in our midst today - this guy got 44 % of the German vote in 1933, and the great majority of those who voted for him weren't rabid* antisemites..

*Which isn't to say that they didn't hold anti-semitic attitudes - most Germans of the time did, as did very large percentages of people throughout the "civilized" world, including Britain and America. Let us be grateful that we never got the chance to find out whether the English-speaking countries harbored their own large numbers of willing collaborators in genocide.

Saturday, September 13, 2003

My My, What a Surprise!

From the Department of the Flamingly Obvious comes this report in Aftenposten:

Jungle dwelling is more stressful life

The indigenous Mangyan people of the Mindoro Island in the Phillipines live a traditional and primitive life on the edge of the tropical jungle. Norwegian researchers have now found that the Mangyan way of life produces the same types of stress that modern technological living does - only more so.

Brit Hellesnes, chief physiotherapist at the heart and lung center at Ullevaal Hospital, and her husband, Peer Staff, head of medical expertise at Vesta Insurance, decided to take a close look at the difference between basic living and the well-documented strains of modern existence.

A year ago, the couple traveled to Mindoro and carried out extensive interviews with local interpreters. The results were unexpected, and will be published in an international scholarly journal later this year.

"We were greatly surprised when the data was analyzed and we found that, not only did the jungle dwellers have the same ailments we did, they had them to an even greater degree. Also, we found that the distribution of ailments was exactly like that in modern society," Staff and Hellesnes said.

Fatigue, depression, sleeplessness are all common complaints that are not solved by a hunter-gatherer lifestyle grounded by some basic agriculture.

Like present-day affluent Norwegians, the most common physical complaints were muscle and skeletal pains. But while 82.1 percent of Norwegians answered that they have had such problems in the course of the past 30 days, 100 percent of the Mindoro felt the same.

Stomach ailments pestered 60 percent of Norwegians during the previous month - over 80 percent of the Mindoro had the same complaint.

The lack of control over their existence gave the Mindoro far more to worry about, and even such basic elements like food or childbirth are laden with uncertainty on the fringe of the jungle. A basic difference between the two varying cultures is that the Mindoro do not view their pains as illnesses, but rather as a normal state of affairs.

Something like this is worth having close at hand whenever one has to listen to complaints about how stressful it is being an urban sophisticate; the average whining yuppie wouldn't have lasted very long in a paleolithic setting.

Just as I Feared

From Reuters we learn the following:

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Support for a Swedish ``Yes'' to the euro overtook the ``No'' side in a poll for the first time since April after the murder of Foreign Minister Anna Lindh, but another survey Saturday showed a continued ``No'' lead.

A Gallup poll, taken after Lindh died of stab wounds on Thursday, indicated that backing for the European Union's single currency had jumped to lead opposition by 43-42 percent, on an apparent wave of sympathy for the fervent pro-euro campaigner.

Fifteen percent were undecided ahead of Sunday's vote on whether to abandon the crown for the euro.

The survey, taken among 1,033 people and published by the daily Expressen and TV4, compared with a Gallup poll earlier in the week in which the ``Yes'' side had trailed the ``No'' side by 35-50 percent with about 16 percent undecided.

``Anna Lindh's death is affecting the referendum,'' Expressen said.

But a Temo opinion poll, also conducted after Lindh's death, for the Dagens Nyheter daily, showed the ``No'' camp carrying 46 percent of the vote against 40 percent for the ``Yes'' campaign.

The six percentage point lead was unchanged from a poll a day before when euro opponents led by 48-42 percent.

The bloc of undecided voters grew to 14 percent from 10 percent with Dagens Nyheter saying uncertainty had increased, especially among women and voters of the ruling Social Democratic party, after Lindh's murder.

Too many people in this world are sentimental and weak-minded, and I fully expect the "Yes" vote to win through, solely on the basis of many a voter feeling obliged to "honor" her death by voting appropriately, never mind that the poll is supposed to be about Sweden's future, not how one feels about the death of one woman. I fear that this perverse outcome is precisely what Lindh's murderer was hoping to achieve.

Friday, September 12, 2003

The Onion Strikes Again

This Onion take on the retailing industry really is hilarious, and it does a great job of capturing the various factors, like price, convenient parking and a greater range of offerings, that give megastores like Walmart such a competitive advantage over the typical Mom-and-Pop operation.

The Onion piece also does a nice job of capturing the more personal side of the story - change can make for losers as well as winners - as well as the hypocrisy of most talk about "loyalty" and "community values" when it comes to commerce. If people really did value these things as much as they like to say they do, far fewer small retailers would go out of business. That things are different is due entirely to the fact that people vote differently with their dollars than they say they will - in economist lingo, their revealed preference is for Walmart-like megamarts. If Americans thought quaint middle-American family farms genuinely worth saving, they'd pay over the odds for the produce these farms grow, and the fact that American consumers choose not to is proof that farm subsidies are utterly unjustified.*

It is also worth noting that the same is true for globalization and its' critics; contrary to the opinion of many on both extremes of the political aisle, people are not slaves to advertising and television, and McDonalds, Disney and the porn industry would not be doing such brisk worldwide were there no genuine demand for the products they have to offer. If Jose Bove dislikes the "McDonaldization" of his beloved France so much, he ought to blame his fellow Frenchmen for their love of "le Big Mac", rather than trading organizations like the WTO.


*The skilled logicians amongst you may notice a peculiarity in my argument; if it seems to you to imply that farm subsidies are never justifiable, then you are undoubtedly correct. Any economic argument that sets out to justify subsidies must lead to the conclusion that the subsidies should not be necessary, as long as we accept that customers reveal their preferences in the choices they make in consumption. At best, one might argue that customers lack sufficient knowledge to make informed choices, but this would be an argument for giving them better information, rather than for subsidies per se.

Things to Read

Prodded by a statement made in a recent entry at Crooked Timber about impossibility theorems, I'm planning to dig out my old textbooks and reacquaint myself with Galois Theory, with the intention in mind of being able to rigorously lay out a proof of the impossibility of one of the classical challenges of antiquity - the trisection of any angle, using nothing more than an unmarked ruler and a compass.

The statement that spurred me to this undertaking actually referred to another problem, namely the task of squaring the circle, i.e, constructing a square equal in area to a given circle, using, as with angle trisection, only an unmarked ruler and a compass. Unfortunately, the proof of this impossibility hinges on the transcendentality of Pi, the proof of which is a lot more difficult than in the angle trisection case. That said proof is also an involved exercise in analytic number theory (as opposed to the algebraic sort, which I like), hardly helps matters.

An Old Soviet Joke

I got this from a history course page on St. Andrews University's website:

A delegation from his native Georgia leaves Stalin's office after a long meeting. Stalin realizes that he cannot find his pipe and calls Dzerzhinsky to find out if anyone from the delegation took his pipe. After 30 minutes Stalin finds the pipe under the table and calls Dzerzhinsky to let the delegation go. Dzerzhinsky answers Stalin's call: "I am sorry Comrade, but one half of the delegation already admitted that they took your pipe, and the other half died during questioning."

Jokes like this one serve two purposes, to my mind: one, of course, is to amuse, but the more important one is to keep the realities of communism firmly in view. There is a dangerous tendency in many parts of the left to engage in selective amnesia about what communism was really like, as is evidenced by the gushing posters of Che that are still to be found in abundance on student dormitory walls everywhere, or the current German fad for "Ostalgie" ("Ostalgia").

No one would imagine it politic to put up posters of Horst Wessel or to talk about the "good aspects" of life under the Third Reich, but for some strange reason it is deemed acceptable to grant such indulges to communists, who have repeatedly proven themselves to be just as murderous as the Nazis everyone loves to hate. Just because the mass murders under communist rule did not happen before our eyes, and we lack the sort of graphic confirmation of their reality that we possess with Auschwitz, Treblinka and other such dreadful places, does not make them any less real for all that, least of all to those who lost their lives on the altar of "class struggle."

The Senator From Chappaquiddick Strikes Again

Breaking News:

Kennedy Pledges to Defeat School Voucher Bill
By Lolita C. Baldor
Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - Sen. Edward Kennedy plans to do everything he can to defeat the proposed use of school vouchers in the nation's capital, his spokesman said Thursday.

Voucher supporters are trying to change his mind and will run a television ad in his home state of Massachusetts next week questioning the Democrat's commitment to civil rights.

Kennedy's spokesman, Jim Manley, said that would not stop the senator from trying to block legislation in the Senate legislation that would give private school vouchers to students in the District of Columbia. Kennedy has not ruled out any legislative tactic, including a filibuster, Manley said.

The measure would provide $13 million so that thousands of low-income students could go to private schools and receive up to $7,500 to defray the costs. A similar bill passed in the House by one vote, but opponents believe they can stall the bill in the Senate.

Manley said Kennedy plans to offer an amendment to drop the voucher program from the bill and put the money into improving the city's public schools.

The executive director of D.C. Parents for School Choice, the group behind the new ad, said, "We're frustrated to hear he is so adamantly opposed to this. The Kennedys were always very supportive of fairness and of people getting what they deserve."

The ad shows scenes from the civil rights movement in the South. Virginia Walden-Ford, the executive director, talks in the voice-over about growing up with segregation and knowing that the late Sen. Robert Kennedy fought for equal rights.

"Senator Kennedy, your brothers fought for us," she says in the ad. "Why do you fight against us?"

Kennedy has said the voucher plan will take money from public schools and give it to private schools that do not have to meet as many testing and accountability requirements.

The appropriations bill that includes the voucher plan could come up in the Senate next week.

What a scumbag! And to think there are people who makes this worthless hypocrite out to be some sort of hero!

Strange Dreams

For some unfathomable reason, while taking a nap this afternoon, I dreamt of the Atiyah-Singer Index Theorem. I've got topology on the brain ...

Wednesday, September 10, 2003

"I See Your True Colors Shining Through" ...

Get a load of this article in SFGate:

Two teachers unions split on whether Democrats should have skipped debate for voucher vote
NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer
Wednesday, September 10, 2003

One teacher's union said Wednesday that two Democratic presidential candidates can't be faulted for missing a crucial House vote on school vouchers, while another criticized the no-shows.

House Republican leaders scheduled a vote on their plan to spend $10 million on private school vouchers for students in the District of Columbia on Tuesday night -- the same time the Congressional Black Caucus was hosting a debate for the candidates in nearby Baltimore.

The black caucus and almost all Democrats are opposed to the GOP voucher plan and were forced to choose between attending the debate or voting. Caucus Chairman Elijah Cummings, D-Md., asked the caucus members to remain in Washington, but he and the two Democratic House members seeking the presidency -- Reps. Dick Gephardt of Missouri and Dennis Kucinich of Ohio -- decided to attend the debate.

The Republicans kept the 15-minute vote open for 40 minutes to break a tie and the voucher plan eventually passed by a single vote. The vote came at 8:23 p.m.; the debate got under way at 8 p.m.

National Education Association spokeswoman Anjetta McQueen said the union is upset with the Republican leadership's "poor display of democracy" in scheduling the vote when many members planned to be out of town. But she was also critical of all 17 members who missed the vote -- 10 Democrats and seven Republicans.

"We're questioning why, if people are saying that education is their priority, they missed this important vote," McQueen said.


Charlotte Fraas, legislative director for the American Federation of Teachers, said her group isn't blaming Gephardt and Kucinich for failing to stop the voucher plan.

"I wouldn't want to lay that at the feet, frankly, of the presidential candidates," Fraas said. "It's unfortunate. This is a presidential year and obviously a lot of these members have to be performing two duties."

The two unions oppose using public money for private education.

Anjetta McQueen could hardly say more to confirm my assertion that the NEA doesn't give a damn about anyone and anything other than protecting the perks of its' membership. Imagine the nerve of the woman, condemning the Democrats for attending a debate being hosted by the Congressional Black Caucus! Is there any doubt left about who's truly in charge here?

D.C. Voucher Bill Passes in House by 1 Vote

Thank God! But why by so narrow a margin? Because 15 treacherous Republicans crossed the aisle to vote against the measure, while only 3 Democrats had the decency to do the right thing by D.C.'s poor.

"This sends a very powerful message to the Senate," said Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.), who joined a majority of the D.C. Council and school board in opposing vouchers despite the support the measure received from D.C. Mayor Anthony A. Williams (D), D.C. Council member Kevin P. Chavous (D-Ward 7) and Board of Education President Peggy Cooper Cafritz.

Supporters "have completely miscalculated the sentiment in this House and in the Senate for public education and against draining any money away from it," Norton said, adding that the private-school vouchers are "hard to explain in members' districts back home" when federal public education reforms are underfunded by $9 billion and local budgets are strained.

[............]

In the Senate, Democrats debated their strategy on the voucher issue, which now appears unlikely to reach the Senate floor before next week at the earliest.

Norton said that instead of waging a filibuster, Senate Democrats would hold an open debate on the merits of the voucher concept.

But a Senate Democratic aide, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the strategy remained undecided. While Democrats want to make clear that they seek an open debate, the aide said, "all tools remain available to Democrats to defeat this legislation."

It's good to see that the Democrats are now willing to be at least partially truthful about their real motivations - defending the budgets of NEA bureaucrats at all costs - but why maintain the fiction that this has anything to do with "underfunding?" For goodness' sake, this bill was crafted with an extra $10 million earmarked, precisely to prevent ludicrous claims of public schools being "drained"; what is more, the funding required will be from the federal government, so "local budgets" have absolutely zip to do with the bill at issue here. That the Democratic Party's representatives are willing to tell such blatant lies says a great deal about their desperation.

I await the Senate vote with interest, and I'm particularly interested in finding out if the Democrats are willing to go through with their threat of a filibuster. If they do dare carry one out, there will certainly be hell to pay. Most of the Democratic Party leadership appears to believe that black support is theirs by right, a sort of heirloom to be passed down through the generations, rather than something to be actively courted by bold deeds instead of mere words, but pointless gesture politics will no longer suffice to get out the black vote. Even if the GOP doesn't come calling, there's always the option of staying home on election day.

Swedish Foreign Minister Stabbed

From the BBC:

Swedish Foreign Minister Anna Lindh has been repeatedly stabbed in an attack in a Stockholm department store.

Doctors carried out emergency surgery on what were described as serious knife injuries.

"She has stab wounds in the chest, stomach and arms and is being operated on now, but the wounds are not life-threatening," police spokeswoman Stina Wessling told Reuters.

Prime Minister Goran Persson said: "The attack on her is an attack on our open society and because of this I am feeling great anger and dismay."

[............]

Police were said to be searching for a man wearing a camouflage jacket who fled from the store, and denied reports that a man was being held.

"There is nothing pointing at a political motive right now," said police spokesman Bjoern Pihlblad.

However, Mr Persson said security had been tightened around government buildings.

He also said that he was suspending the campaign for a Yes vote in Sunday's referendum on membership of the euro.

Ms Lindh, 46, had been playing a leading a role in the campaign, which the government appears likely to lose.

Why would anyone do this? Was this man simply insane? I can't help thinking that there is a political motive at work, despite the denials of the Swedish police. I don't think it has anything to do with the established political parties or the campaigning groups as such; most probably, some rogue operator, along the lines of Pim Fortuyn's murderer, might have decided to take things into his own hands.

What bothers me most about this attack, apart from the sheer brutality of the deed, is that the Swedish public is likely to believe that the attacker was motivated by anti-euro feelings, and will therefore rally to the pro-Euro camp in the upcoming vote, based purely on the sympathy factor. Should that scenario play out, this sick brute will have done more to darken the future of Europe than he could ever have dreamed possible.

Further Symptoms of the Failure of the Public School System

Via Niraj, I discovered this interesting piece in the New York Times, about the emerging trend - African immigrants to the United States are sending their children back home to complete their secondary educations. Not only are private schools in African countries an order of magnitude cheaper than their American counterparts, but the quality of the education they offer is far superior to what can be had in the typical inner-city public school - a fact that may come as a surprise to the "we need more money" school of liberal thought, but which is hardly astonishing to me; after all, I am in part a product of African schools myself, and I don't think I've turned out too badly for being so.

September 4, 2003
For Schooling, a Reverse Emigration to Africa
By LYNETTE CLEMETSON

WASHINGTON, Sept. 3 — Najima and Nayaba Bawa were despondent when their parents first raised the subject of sending them home to Ghana. It was three years ago, one evening as their mother was braiding Nayaba's hair. Najima, then in junior high, had lost focus in school. Hanging out with friends had become more important than studying. She had even brought home a few C's on her report card.

They had reached a decision, the girls' parents calmly informed them. They were sending them to the Akosombo International School, a boarding school in the eastern Ghananian town of Akosombo, northeast of the capital, Accra.

"We tried everything to get out of it," said Najima, 16, now preparing, along with her sister, to begin her third year there.

Nayaba, 14, who like her sister grew up in Washington, said, "We wondered what we had done to be sent away."

When they arrived at the Ghananian school and met the children of other Africans from the United States, they realized that their parents' decision was not uncommon. The Bawas, and other African families like them, have opted for a temporary reverse emigration for their children. In part it is an effort to help them maintain links to their African heritage. But it is also, many say, a conscious, protective response to adolescence in the United States.

American teenagers have more opportunity to get into trouble than those in Africa, where high levels of independence and materialism are less common, these families say. And the negative consequences of slipping through the cracks in the United States, they say they have observed, often disproportionately affect black children.

For their children to realize the American dream, many immigrant parents have decided, it may be best for them to leave the United States for a few years.

"During those tender years when so many African-American children are lost, it is seen as a beneficial absence," said Sulayman S. Nyang, a professor of African studies at Howard University. "Parents worry that the negative values of self-denigration that some children fall into here will hamper the quest for social mobility that is part of the immigrant experience."

According to the latest census, the African-born population in the United States totals nearly one million. There are no figures on the numbers of African families who choose to school their children in their home countries, but Professor Nyang and other academics and families interviewed said the cultural timeouts had been practiced since the African population in the United States began to swell in the late 1970's and 1980's.

Though schooling back in Africa is impossible for refugees from the most unstable parts of the continent, it is a popular option for immigrants from African countries with relatively stable political and economic systems like Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, Kenya and South Africa.

Though some schools in Africa do not take girls, others, like Akosombo International, are co-ed, and require the girls to take rigorous academic programs with more language and science courses than are required in many schools in the United States. Some schools, which cater to families who want their children to attend college in the United States or England, offer international baccalaureate programs. About 20 percent of students enrolled in Akosombo International are from Ghanaian families living outside Ghana.

Some families bring their children back to the United States in 12th grade, so they can take their SAT examinations and make sure they have all the necessary credits to apply to American colleges.

"We want to teach them that they can pick and choose from different parts of the American experience, like a buffet," said Mahama Bawa, the girls' father, who came to Washington from Ghana in 1983, and who owns an African clothing store in Adams Morgan, a neighborhood infused with African and Hispanic culture. "But to do that they need to be able to step back from it, to develop a broader perspective."

The Bawa sisters, who say they cannot wait to return to school in mid-September, say boarding school in Ghana is not devoid of normal teenage pressures. Though students wear uniforms, they still assess one another's coolness — or lack thereof — based on things like sneakers and backpacks.

But the girls said that the strict discipline imposed at their school — dormitory and classroom inspections, mandatory 4 a.m. jogs on Saturdays, rigidly enforced study and play times — relieved them of some of the pressure of having too many choices.

"Here a lot of people are just focused on what party to go to," said Nayaba, who will soon have to cut off the fashionable braided hair extensions she got this summer and return to the close-cropped natural look, required of all the girls in her school. "In boarding school the goal is just learning, not to be average but to be at the top of the class. You feel out of place if you're not trying; that's sometimes not the case here."

For many families, the relative affordability of boarding schools abroad is also a plus. One of the better private schools in Ghana, Akosombo International is far too expensive for the average Ghanaian. But tuition and board for a three-term school year totals about $750 for each child.

The Bawas, who are Muslim, said they would probably have enrolled their daughters in a Roman Catholic school had they stayed here, but even the least expensive private schools in the Washington area would have cost around $5,000 for each child.

When one considers that the District of Columbia currently spends more than $10,000 per child to deliver the atrocious public schooling on offer, it seems all the more malicious and insane that so many liberals keep insisting that vouchers will do nothing to improve the quality of education. Could there be a more damning indictment of the failure of the public school system than that parents are sending their children back to an Africa they must have struggled mightily to leave behind?

High and Low Culture

The following humorous piece appeared yesterday in the pages of the British Times:

It takes a moron to recognise a good movie
by Petr Briffa

Why do more people go to see meretricious American films than exciting European ones? Answer: because they are better. No, not according to our Minister for Europe.

Today is the launch of the New Europe Film Season, one of those publicly funded shindigs that no one goes to. Denis MacShane has decided to co-opt it for his own dubious agenda. Instead of simply saying how worthy European cinema is, he has decided to have a go at those dreadful Yankees.

“My sense is American movies are quite tired now,” MacShane told a newspaper. “American culture is running out of steam. It has become meretricious and so obsessed with money-making. You can’t have a culture that reduces everything to consumption and hope you’ll find the space for art that allows great film-making.”

I suppose it is par for the course for some Eurogoon to use any excuse to bash the United States and indulge in crowd-pleasing rhetoric aimed at snooty, oversubsidised European intellectuals. But if Mr MacShane means any of this, and wants to turn this posturing into policy, we should all be petrified. He says he wants multiplexes to stop showing Hollywood blockbusters and “be more outward-looking and let people understand that Lithuanian, Estonian, Polish, Hungarian, Romanian and Turkish films are a pretty good thing”.

Of course, I stand second to no one in my admiration for Lithuanian cinema (though, for some unaccountable reason, I couldn’t actually name any of its hits), but the idea that cinemas should remain empty so that otherwise unemployable European film-makers are kept in beer and sandwiches is one that barely deserves taking seriously.

Owners of multiplexes do not fill their cinemas with American blockbusters because they are all part of a great neo-conservative plot to take over the world. They do it because they are popular. To take issue with this is take issue not with the owners of multiplexes, but with the public.

America dominates movies. Australia dominates cricket. Ethiopia dominates long-distance running. If Estonian cinema were better, it would put more bums on seats. You got a problem, buddy?

And this is really what Mr MacShane is about, when he tells us, in that revealing phrase, that American culture is “reducing everything to consumption”. Which is liberal-speak for “giving the public what it wants”. A guiding principle for the American film-maker but a positively subversive concept for those wedded to the European ideal that the public are basically morons.

That’s not to say that all European films are terrible. I, like many men of my age, have whiled away many an hour at some arthouse, pretending to be impressed by all the sensitive camerawork, understated nuances and delicate sensibilities, while secretly longing for any opportunity to gawp at a scantily clad Nathalie Baye or Catherine Deneuve.

But the sad fact is that if all the film cameras in Europe simultaneously combusted and no more films were made here for the next ten years, a bunch of paper- pushers at the European film councils would notice, but not those queueing for tickets on a Saturday night.

Why? Not because European film-makers are less talented than their American counterparts, but largely because they are chasing grants from the Euro elites who are more interested in providing films that are good for you, rather than films that are good.

Given the choice between Arnie killing lots of bad people, and a bunch of menopausal women going naked and talking about buns, I know which I’d prefer.

The author writes the www.publicinterest.co.uk website

The Passing of an Age

I'd meant to comment on this earlier. It is reported that Leni Riefenstahl died yesterday, at the ripe old age of 101. What is also interesting is that Ramón Serrano Súñer, brother-in-law of Francisco Franco, Spanish minister of foreign affairs from 1940 to 1942, and a firm advocate of Spanish collaboration with Mussolini and Hitler, was reported by Der Spiegel to have passed away recently as well, on the 1st of September. Coincidentally, he also died at the age of 101.

Apart from illustrating that collaborating with evil is no bar to living a long and comfortable life, the deaths of Riefenstahl and Súñer also seem to say something about the historical ignorance of much of the British and American press. That Riefenstahl was a propagandist for Hitler is well known, but a strong argument can be made that whatever she might have done, Súñer's role in that dark era of European history was of more consequence. Nevertheless, he got hardly any press of any kind, much less the barrage of hostile reporting that she did. The difference, I believe, stems not from any prejudice on the part of the press as such, as from a near total lack of knowledge on the part of most reporters about the history of Falangist Spain, and its' relationships with its' European neighbors.

One final, albeit incidental, point. Despite Súñer being a being a firm advocate of closer collaboration with the Germans (for which reason Franco eventually made him resign his ministerial post, as well as his presidency of the Falange's political council), Hitler seems to have despised the man, as is made evident by his many disparaging remarks about Súñer in "Hitler's Table Talk: 1941-1944" (Enigma Books). To give a example of Hitler's attitude towards Súñer, I offer the following passage from Section 254 of the aforementioned work:

7th July 1942, at Dinner

General Jodl told the Führer of an incident which had occurred at the Spanish frontier on the occasion of the return home of some wounded of the Blue Division. These men were refused places in the South Express, and when they tried to get into the guard's van, a company of infantry intervened on the orders of the Military Governor and ejected them. Marshal Keitel suggested that the Blue Division was in bad odour because of its name, the colour blue being a reminder of the old original Falange, which was not a disciple of the Church. In the new Falange admission could be obtained only with the approval of the local priest. The Führer said:

   The Spanish situation is developing in a deplorable fashion. Franco, obviously, has not the personality to face up to the political problems of the country. Even so, he started off from a much more favourable position than either the Duce or myself; for we had both not only to capture the State, but also to win over the armed forces to our side. Franco, on the other hand, had both political power and military force in his own hands. It is obvious that he is incapable of freeing himself from the influence of Serrano Súñer, in spite of the fact that the latter is the personification of the parson in politics and is blatantly playing a dishonest game with the Axis Powers.

   In point of fact, these parsons are too stupid for words. They are trying, through Serrano Súñer, to give a reactionary impulse to Spanish politics and restore the monarchy; all they will succeed in doing, however, is to cause another civil war, which they themselves will certainly never survive.

It is astonishing that Hitler could have misjudged the realities of Spanish politics so completely, despite his pretensions to prophetic insight. Not only did he take a friend for an enemy, but he also mistook Franco for a weak puppet, when in reality it was Súñer who pled for closer Spanish-German relations to no avail. To make matters worse, he seemed to believe that there were schemers at work behind Franco's back, working for the restoration of the monarchy against his wishes, when in truth it was Franco himself who would see to it that the monarchy was restored. To top it all off, the second civil war he prophesied never did come to pass, and Franco's more sober dictatorship would long outlive his own. Hitler may have been a keen judge of the mood of the crowd, but he was a spectacularly poor judge of the characters of men.

Tuesday, September 09, 2003

More Black Families Choose Homeschooling for Their Kids

Yet another item for the Democrats to consider. Black discontent over the dire quality of public schools can only continue growing, and if liberals imagine that they can keep fobbing off black demands for vouchers indefinitely, without paying any sort of consequence, they are living in a make-believe world. The Democratic Party really needs to ask itself: do children exist to serve the public school system and the teachers' unions, or does public schooling exist to serve children? Whatever the likes of Mary "Georgetown Day" Landrieu and Teddy "Chappaquidick" Kennedy might wish, the tail will not keep wagging the dog forever.

The Falseness of Anti-Americanism

There's a nice essay by Fouad Ajami up on the Foreign Policy website. He does a good job of pointing out the schizoid manner in which so many of those who rail against American culture, goods and policies do so while using the very tools of modernity brought to them by American activities. Take, for instance, the following passage:

In Doha, Qatar, Sheik Yusuf al-Qaradawi, arguably Sunni Islam's most influential cleric, at Omar ibn al-Khattab Mosque, a short distance away from the headquarters of the U.S. Central Command, delivers a khutba, a Friday sermon. The date is June 13, 2003. The cleric's big theme of the day is the arrogance of the United States and the cruelty of the war it unleashed on Iraq. This cleric, Egyptian born, political to his fingertips, and in full mastery of his craft and of the sensibility of his followers, is particularly agitated in his sermon. Surgery and a period of recovery have kept him away from his pulpit for three months, during which time there has been a big war in the Arab world that toppled Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq with stunning speed and effectiveness. The United States was "acting like a god on earth," al-Qaradawi told the faithful. In Iraq, the United States had appointed itself judge and jury. The invading power may have used the language of liberation and enlightenment, but this invasion of Iraq was a 21st-century version of what had befallen Baghdad in the middle years of the 13th century, in 1258 to be exact, when Baghdad, the city of learning and culture, was sacked by the Mongols.

The preacher had his themes, but a great deal of the United States had gone into the preacher's art: Consider his Web site, Qaradawi.net, where the faithful can click and read his fatwas (religious edicts)— the Arabic interwoven with html text— about all matters of modern life, from living in non-Islamic lands to the permissibility of buying houses on mortgage to the follies of Arab rulers who have surrendered to U.S. power. Or what about his way with television? He is a star of the medium, and Al-Jazeera carried an immensely popular program of his. That art form owes a debt, no doubt, to the American "televangelists," as nothing in the sheik's traditional education at Al Azhar University in Cairo prepared him for this wired, portable religion. And then there are the preacher's children: One of his daughters had made her way to the University of Texas where she received a master's degree in biology, a son had earned a Ph.D. from the University of Central Florida in Orlando, and yet another son had embarked on that quintessential American degree, an MBA at the American University in Cairo. Al-Qaradawi embodies anti-Americanism as the flip side of Americanization.

So then, America is the devil's representative on earth, and yet the good Sheik finds it acceptable for three of his offspring to attend educational institutions of the Great Satan! The hypocrisy of people like this is simply breathtaking. One finds oneself wondering what, if anything, they believe at all, other than money and power can be had by keeping the masses perpetually whipped up into a frenzy of anger.

But wait, there's more! Here's what he has to say about Greek and Turkish anti-Americanism:

Takis Michas, a courageous Greek writer with an eye for his country's temperament, traces this new anti-Americanism to the Orthodox Church itself. A narrative of virtuous and embattled solitude and alienation from Western Christendom has always been integral to the Greek psyche; a fusion of church and nation is natural to the Greek worldview. In the 1990s, the Yugoslav wars gave this sentiment a free run. The church sanctioned and fed the belief that the United States was Satan, bent on destroying the "True Faith," Michas explains, and shoring up Turkey and the Muslims in the Balkans. A neo-Orthodox ideology took hold, slicing through faith and simplifying history. Where the Balkan churches— be they the Bulgars or the Serbs— had been formed in rebellion against the hegemony of the Greek priesthood, the new history made a fetish of the fidelity of Greece to its Orthodox "brethren." Greek paramilitary units fought alongside Bosnian Serbs as part of the Drina Corps under the command of indicted war criminal Gen. Ratko Mladic. The Greek flag was hoisted over the ruins of Srebenica's Orthodox church when the doomed city fell. Serbian war crimes elicited no sense of outrage in Greece; quite to the contrary, sympathy for Serbia and the identification with its war aims and methods were limitless.

Beyond the Yugoslav wars, the neo-Orthodox worldview sanctified the ethnonationalism of Greece, spinning a narrative of Hellenic persecution at the hands of the United States as the standard-bearer of the West. Greece is part of NATO and of the European Union (EU), but an old schism— that of Eastern Orthodoxy's claim against the Latin world— has greater power and a deeper resonance. In the banal narrative of Greek anti-Americanism, this animosity emerges from U.S. support for the junta that reigned over the country from 1967 to 1974. This deeper fury enables the aggrieved to glide over the role the United States played in the defense and rehabilitation of Greece after World War II. Furthermore, it enables them to overlook the lifeline that migration offered to untold numbers of Greeks who are among the United States' most prosperous communities.

Greece loves the idea of its "Westernness"— a place and a culture where the West ends, and some other alien world (Islam) begins. But the political culture of religious nationalism has isolated Greece from the wider currents of Western liberalism. What little modern veneer is used to dress up Greece's anti-Americanism is a pretense. The malady here is, paradoxically, a Greek variant of what plays out in the world of Islam: a belligerent political culture sharpening faith as a political weapon, an abdication of political responsibility for one's own world, and a search for foreign "devils."

Lest they be trumped by their hated Greek rivals, the Turks now give voice to the same anti-Americanism. It is a peculiar sentiment among the Turks, given their pragmatism. They are not prone to the cluster of grievances that empower anti-Americanism in France or among the intelligentsia of the developing world. In the 1920s, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk gave Turkey a dream of modernity and self-help by pointing his country westward, distancing it from the Arab-Muslim lands to its south and east. But the secular, modernist dream in Turkey has fractured, and oddly, anti-Americanism blows through the cracks from the Arab lands and from Brussels and Berlin.

The fury of the Turkish protests against the United States in the months prior to the war in Iraq exhibited a pathology all its own. It was, at times, nature imitating art: The protesters in the streets burned American flags in the apparent hope that Europeans (real Europeans, that is) would finally take Turkey and the Turks into the fold. The U.S. presence had been benign in Turkish lands, and Americans had been Turkey's staunchest advocates for coveted membership in the EU. But suddenly this relationship that served Turkey so well was no longer good enough. As the "soft" Islamists (there is no such thing, we ought to understand by now) revolted against Pax Americana, the secularists averted their gaze and let stand this new anti-Americanism. The pollsters calling on the Turks found a people in distress, their economy on the ropes, and their polity in an unfamiliar world beyond the simple certainties of Kemalism, yet without new political tools and compass. No dosage of anti-Americanism, the Turks will soon realize, will take Turkey past the gatekeepers of Europe.

So, too bad about the Greeks and the Turks, but what about old allies like the French? Surely their criticisms can be taken at face value:

Much has been made of the sympathy that the French expressed for the United States immediately after the September 11 attacks, as embodied by the famous editorial of Le Monde's publisher Jean-Marie Colombani, "Nous Sommes Tous Américains" ("We are all Americans"). And much has been made of the speed with which the United States presumably squandered that sympathy in the months that followed. But even Colombani's column, written on so searing a day, was not the unalloyed message of sympathy suggested by the title. Even on that very day, Colombani wrote of the United States reaping the whirlwind of its "cynicism"; he recycled the hackneyed charge that Osama bin Laden had been created and nurtured by U.S. intelligence agencies.

Colombani quickly retracted what little sympathy he had expressed when, in December of 2001, he was back with an open letter to "our American friends" and soon thereafter with a short book, Tous Américains? le monde après le 11 septembre 2001 (All Americans? The World After September 11, 2001). By now the sympathy had drained, and the tone was one of belligerent judgment and disapproval. There was nothing to admire in Colombani's United States, which had run roughshod in the world and had been indifferent to the rule of law. Colombani described the U.S. republic as a fundamentalist Christian enterprise, its magistrates too deeply attached to the death penalty, its police cruel to its black population. A republic of this sort could not in good conscience undertake a campaign against Islamism. One can't, Colombani writes, battle the Taliban while trying to introduce prayers in one's own schools; one can't strive to reform Saudi Arabia while refusing to teach Darwinism in the schools of the Bible Belt; and one can't denounce the demands of the sharia (Islamic law) while refusing to outlaw the death penalty. Doubtless, he adds, the United States can't do battle with the Taliban before doing battle against the bigotry that ravages the depths of the United States itself. The United States had not squandered Colombani's sympathy; he never had that sympathy in the first place.

Colombani was hardly alone in the French intellectual class in his enmity toward the United States. On November 3, 2001, in Le Monde, the writer and pundit Jean Baudrillard permitted himself a thought of stunning cynicism. He saw the perpetrators of September 11 acting out his own dreams and the dreams of others like him. He gave those attacks a sort of universal warrant: "How we have dreamt of this event," he wrote, "how all the world without exception dreamt of this event, for no one can avoid dreaming of the destruction of a power that has become hegemonic . . . . It is they who acted, but we who wanted the deed." Casting caution and false sympathy aside, Baudrillard saw the terrible attacks on the United States as an "object of desire." The terrorists had been able to draw on a "deep complicity," knowing perfectly well that they were acting out the hidden yearnings of others oppressed by the United States' order and power. To him, morality of the U.S. variety is a sham, and the terrorism directed against it is a legitimate response to the inequities of "globalization."

Oops! On second thought, perhaps not.

I don't wish to give the wrong impression: there really is a great deal to criticize about American foreign policy, but the thing to keep in mind is that the same can be said of the foreign policy of every other nation on this planet. America is uniquely prominent and powerful at this point in time, but it is not uniquely selfish or evil in its' pursuit of its' own interests. To single out America alone as worthy of criticism, even when one's own country is engaged in actions that ought to bring shame to the face of any decent person, is nothing more than a ridiculous prejudice; to seek to blame America for all the evils of the world, or even to accuse it of executing outrages against itself in order to further some sinister agenda, is a marker of rampaging paranoia.

The RIAA Loses its' Mind

From the New York Post (alternatively, see Fox News) comes this charmer of a PR disaster in the making:

The music industry has turned its big legal guns on Internet music-swappers - including a 12-year-old Upper West Side girl who thought downloading songs was fun.

Brianna LaHara said she was frightened to learn she was among the hundreds of people sued yesterday by giant music companies in federal courts around the country.

"I got really scared. My stomach is all turning," Brianna said last night at the city Housing Authority apartment on West 84th Street where she lives with her mom and her 9-year-old brother.

"I thought it was OK to download music because my mom paid a service fee for it. Out of all people, why did they pick me?"

The Recording Industry Association of America - a music-industry lobbying group behind the lawsuits - couldn't answer that question.

"We are taking each individual on a case-by-case basis," said RIAA spokeswoman Amy Weiss.

Asked if the association knew Brianna was 12 when it decided to sue her, Weiss answered, "We don't have any personal information on any of the individuals."

Brianna's mom, Sylvia Torres, said the lawsuit was "a total shock."

"My daughter was on the verge of tears when she found out about this," Torres said.

The family signed up for the Kazaa music-swapping service three months ago, and paid a $29.99 service charge.

Usually, they listen to songs without recording them. "There's a lot of music there, but we just listen to it and let it go," Torres said.

When reporters visited Brianna's home last night, she was helping her brother with his homework.

Her mom said Brianna's an honors student at St. Gregory the Great, a Catholic school on West 90th Street.

Brianna was among 261 people sued for copying thousands of songs via popular Internet file-sharing software - and thousands more suits could be on the way.

"Nobody likes playing the heavy and having to resort to litigation," said Cary Sherman, the RIAA's president. "But when your product is being regularly stolen, there comes a time when you have to take appropriate action."

What a bunch of heavy-handed dullards! Have they considered it possible that if they'd offered music-on-demand services of their own years ago, none of this might have happened? It hardly took a genius to see where the music industry's future would be going - I saw it clearly enough as far back as 1997.

A Statement Worth Remembering

"Democratic communism is like fried snowballs."
      Leszek Kolakowski.

Monday, September 08, 2003

Double Standards on Religion

Gregg Easterbrook has an interesting post up on the double standards at work in media coverage of religiously motivated political actions, in this case, on the Alabama's Ray Moore of Ten Commandments infamy, even as the religiously inspired efforts of Governor Bob Riley to eliminate state taxes for the poor are ignored. That religion, and the Christian brand of religion in particular, can be as much a force for good as for evil is something that all too many people on the left fail to grasp.

Yes, Christianity has been used to rationalize all sorts of injustices, but the examples of communism and Nazism in the 20th century ought to disabuse us of the notion that religion is at all necessary for the rationalization of inhumanity. A great deal of good has and is being done around the world by people who are driven by religious motivations, and it seems only proper to me to give these people their due, even if one doesn't like, or even respect, the particular religious systems to which they adhere. Religious devotion is not of its' own a mark of intolerance and wickedness.

Certainly, from a purely philosophical point of view, it is more impressive for one to choose to do good and to help one's fellow man without being prompted to do so by a deity, and with neither the fear of hell nor the prospect of heaven to keep one on the straight and narrow, but men are imperfect creatures who find it hard enough to do the right thing as it is, without theoreticians demanding of them a superhuman loftiness of moral vision. If you are moved to act with kindness and decency towards others you encounter, why should I care what moves you to do so?

Hypocrisy in Action

So it turns out that when the issue of vouchers for Washington D.C. came up for a vote by the Senate Appropriations Committee, only Dianne Feinstein and Robert Byrd broke ranks with the Democratic party to support the bill, with Senator Mary Landrieu (D-Louisiana) abstaining from the vote. This is the same Mary Landrieu of whom the Wall Street Journal said the following some time ago (no link - subscription reqd.):

If Senator Mary Landrieu is mortified about the way her recent flip-flop on school vouchers for Washington, D.C., is playing, we suspect it has something to do with a full-page ad that attracted national attention after it ran in her home state's leading newspaper, the Times-Picayune of New Orleans.

The ad, the top of which is reproduced below, stems from a hallway encounter the Senator had with nine-year-old Mosiyah Hall in July after Mrs. Landrieu had announced that she wouldn't be supporting vouchers for D.C. schoolchildren this time around. This led young Mosiyah to ask the natural question: Where did the Senator send her own kids?

The Louisiana Democrat answered "Georgetown Day"--one of the district's toniest private academies--and went on to offend the mostly black mothers on hand when she came over to explain that even with this D.C. voucher measure they still wouldn't be able to afford Georgetown Day.

Aww shucks, well I guess that makes it all right then! We can't have all these inner city types getting uppity and forgetting their place! Hypocrisy in educational matters seems to be something of a habit with Washington-dwelling Democrats; let us not forget that Bill Clinton sent his own daughter to a private school as well (Sidwell Friends).

It seems that the Democrats still hope to wreck passage of this bill Perhaps the Democratic party's representatives ought to make their motto "public schools for thine, but not for mine," as that's certainly how it plays out in the real world. Following is what I consider the single best part of the Washington Post article:

In one indication of how heated the debate has become, the District chapter of the pro-voucher Black Alliance for Educational Options bought a full-page ad in a New Orleans newspaper accusing Landrieu of turning her back on African Americans and noting that her two children attend the private Georgetown Day School.

Another pro-voucher group, D.C. Parents for School Choice, released the text of a television ad it is to air in the District and Massachusetts that accuses Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) of trying to stop a plan to help black schoolchildren and compares him to segregationist Bull Connor, the Birmingham police chief in the early 1960s.

"Senator Kennedy, your brothers fought for us. Why do you fight against us? Are the unions really more important than these children?" the ad says.

Kennedy spokesman Jim Manley said the ad was "outrageous, and I'm not going to dignify it with a response."

After being informed of the ads, Williams last night called on the pro-voucher organizations to halt such attacks, saying, "These ads don't represent our position, they're not helping our cause and they should take them off the air."

Well of course the (dis)honorable Senator for Massachusetts won't "dignify" the ad with a response, as no possible response could ever dignify selling out the futures of thousands poor inner-city children for the sake of unions' dollars. I hope Mayor Williams is being disingenous in his calls for these attacks to cease, because nothing could be more important than to make the Democratic Party understand that black support is not so unconditional that it can be satisfied with mere token gestures. Ted Kennedy is, if anything, worse than Bull Connor, in that he masquarades as "a friend of the Negroes", even as he works to ensure that they will remain poor and stupid for the indefinite future; at least with the likes of Bull Connor, one knew where one stood.

Sunday, September 07, 2003

Public Choice Theory in Action

Over at Winds of Change, Armed Liberal has a post up that gives real-life illustrations of how government can fail, whether due to mission creep or gross mismanagement. The cases outlined give support to my previous warning about the need to be cautious in assuming that governments are necessarily free of the selfish motives that plague private agents.

Is Iran Building an Atom Bomb? (German) *

From the German Tagesspiegel am Sonntag (Daily Mirror on Sunday) comes the following news:

Eine Gruppe von 70 bis 90 Wissenschaftlern soll in Iran am Bau einer Atombombe arbeiten. Westliche Sicherheitskreise haben zahlreiche Hinweise auf geheime Aktivitäten. Die Forschung der Experten würde vom Verteidigungsministerium koordiniert.

Wie der Tagesspiegel am Sonntag aus westlichen Sicherheitskreisen erfuhr, habe der Iran in Europa Hochspannungsschalter gekauft, die zum Zünden von Atomsprengköpfen benutzt werden können, heißt es in den Kreisen.

Teheran habe sich zudem besondere Hochgeschwindigkeitskameras und Röntgenblitzgeräte besorgt, mit denen Testexplosionen untersucht werden können.
Translation:
A group of 70 to 90 scientists are working in Iran on the construction of an atomic weapon. Western security circles have numerous hints of secret activity. The research of the experts is being coordinated by the [Iranian] Defense Ministry.

Taggespiegel am Sonntag has learnt from Western security circles that Iran has bought high voltage switches in Europe which can be used in the ignition of atomic explosions.

In addition, Teheran has purchased high-speed cameras and X-Ray-flash equipment with which test explosions can be measured.

I've been saying precisely this for ages now! If this news comes as a surprise to anyone, I'll be quite astonished. Military action is going to have to be taken against Iran, with the aim in mind of totally destroying the facilities at Arak, Bonab, Natanz and even Bushehr. It doesn't matter what the Russians say about the last facility - the Iranians have no real need for nuclear power, and their intentions aren't in the least to be trusted.

What I'm most interested in at present is seeing how the European governments react to the ongoing developments. The things they've had to say thus far have been less than encouraging. Jack Straw keeps waffling on about a meaningless "dialogue" with the Iranians, while as usual France and Germany play the role of facilitators, by arguing against the adoption of stern measures against Iran. Don't the governments of these countries feel the slightest bit of alarm at what Iran is up to? Western Europe is within the planned range of Shahab 4 and 5, after all, and the current fracas in Britain about the arrest of the former Iranian ambassador to Argentina is a vivid reminder that Iran has never constrained its' hostile activities to just the territories of the Great and Little Satans.

*I decided to translate more of the article text, to give those who can't read German more insight into why the article leads one to conclude that Iran's activities are dangerous.

"Exploitation" and Confused Thinking on Globalization

Bjørn Stærk has a very, very good post up on the hypocrisy and muddled thinking of those who complain about the evil multinationals "exploiting" the labor of poor countries. There is a strange circularity to the complaints one hears from such people, who in the name of preventing the "exploitation" of the poor, would actually condemn them to lifetimes of poverty, by denying these unfortunate people the right to work at jobs that, however wretched they may seem in the eyes of most Westerners, are actually a step up in life from those they might have otherwise been employed at - were they lucky enough to be working at all.

The problem with people who want to foist Western labor and environmental standards on poor countries is that they don't seem to understand what this would do for the attractiveness of such countries as investment havens - or perhaps they do understand, and just don't give a damn, being more concerned to protect low-productivity labor at home than to engage in trade that boosts the welfare of both participants, without the indignity of one party playing the generous philanthropist, and the other the grateful supplicant. Corporations are not charities, and cannot be expected to bring jobs to countries that have the high wage and environmental expectations of Westerners without the high worker productivity necessary to back these expectations up, and anyone with a historical perspective will be keenly aware that Third World jobs that strike us today as unbearably toilsome and ill-rewarded are often far easier and better-paid than what was typically on offer in the early days of European and American industrialization. As harsh as working conditions in the Third World may be in many circumstances, the truth is that there is no real way for a people to bypass this stage in industrial relations unless they are the beneficiaries of Saudi-like windfall riches.

It is with these thoughts in mind that the notion of Howard Dean succeeding to the White House fills me with the greatest alarm. As bad as Bush is, he at least belongs to a party that is nominally committed to free and unfettered international trade, and there are many conservatives who are grumbling loudly about his protectionist pandering to the producers of steel, catfish and other uncompetitive domestic products. Despite the excellent free trade record of Bill Clinton, no such counterweight exists in the Democratic party, many of whose members really do seem to believe that by pushing for "fair" trade, they will actually be doing a favor to the citizens of poorer countries, rather than the immense harm they will in truth be engendering.

The Dangers of Judicial Activism

Jeffrey Rosen makes a strong case in the New York Times for the notion that judges should tread carefully in using their powers to short-circuit public debate about controversial issues. Whatever one's political stance may be, it is possible to believe that a ruling is both morally correct and legally unjustifiable, as is so evidently the case with Roe v. Wade and Lawrence v. Texas.

One needn't be a fundamentalist, or even a conservative, to accept that there simply isn't anything in the American constitution that confers any sort of right to a first-trimester abortion, and talk of "penumbras" and "emanations" does not suffice to twist the plain text meaning of the document to serve such purposes. The same is true of Lawrence v. Texas, which strikes me as being just plain bad law, and this despite the fact that I think there ought to be a fundamental right to privacy in the constitution, covering not just what five judges on the Supreme Court believe worthy of their protection, but all aspects of everyday life, whether it be one's sexual practices or one's choice of chemical distraction.

It is hypocritical in the extreme for the Supreme Court to rule, as it did, that the implied right to privacy fails to extend to other private transactions such as sex for money, when the moral reasoning against sodomy and prostitution are exactly the same. That a man should be willing to pay for sex when it can so easily be had for free strikes me as pathetic, but my disapproval of such transactions shouldn't be grounds for me to prohibit others engaging in them, and a public debate in the course of which those whose beliefs agreed with mine won over the majority to their stance would have been much preferable to the current situation, in which Supreme Court judges have to go through all sorts of casuistic contortions to justify prohibiting soliciting and prostitution while permitting sodomy. As matters stand, those who would like to legislate on matters of private morality are made to feel like martyrs, and not without reason.

U.S. Surgery Safer than under NHS

Another data point to consider for those who believe that British-style single-payer healthcare systems are the way forward:

Patients who have major operations on the National Health Service are four times more likely to die than Americans undergoing such surgery, according to a new study.

The difference in mortality rates was blamed on long NHS waiting lists, a shortage of specialists and competition for intensive care beds.

The joint study, carried out by University College London and a team from Columbia University in New York, found that patients in Britain who were most at risk of complications after major surgery were not being seen by specialists and were not reaching intensive care units in time to save them.

The study followed 1,100 patients at the Queen Alexandra Hospital in Portsmouth and compared them with 1,000 patients who had undergone similar major surgery at the Mount Sinai Hospital in Manhattan.

The results showed that just under 10 per cent of the British patients died in hospital after major surgery, compared with 2.5 per cent of the American patients.

Each year, more than three million operations are carried out on the NHS and about 350,000 of these are emergencies which carry a higher risk of complications.

Professor Monty Mythen, head of anaesthesia at UCL who led the British side of the research, said: "The main difference seems to be in the quality of post-operative care and who cares."

Prof Mythen, who also oversees the critical care facilities at Great Ormond Street Hospital, said: "In the Manhattan hospital, the care after surgery is delivered largely by a consultant surgeon and an anaesthetist. We know from other research that more than one third of those who die after a major operation in Britain are not seen by a similar consultant.

"In America, everyone would go into a critical care bed - they go into a highly monitored environment. That doesn't happen routinely in the UK."

Health ministers, meanwhile, will present new figures this week showing another annual rise in the number of intensive care beds - although Britain still lags behind America and much of Europe in critical care facilities.

Those who still believe that longevity figures tell the entire story should think carefully about the shortcomings of relying on such a simplistic measure. Life expectancy figures have little to do with the quality of healthcare received as such, given the fact that it is heavily influenced by infant mortality, and the differences in violent deaths between societies. Central planning does not, has never, and will never work, wherever tried.