Friday, December 19, 2003

The Iowa Electronic Markets on the Democratic Nomination

Ever since the 2000 presidential elections, I've been very impressed by the accuracy with which the Iowa Electronic Markets have been able to predict the outcomes of various polls. The following image from the IEM suggests that I was correct in believing that the Democratic presidential nomination is essentially already in the bag for Howard Dean, barring an act of God or some horrendous misstep on his part.
IEM Graph of Democratic Candidates

UPDATE: Here's a nice Reason article by Ronald Bailey that is helpful in interpreting some of the IEM data. In particular, implicit in the data coming out of the IEM is that the 2004 elections look to be shaping up as a landslide for Bush, and that the of all the serious candidates amongst the Democratic primary challengers, Dean is likely to do worst up against Bush. Al From and the DLC are on to something when they worry about Dean dragging the party leftward to oblivion.